Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads the Republican Senate primary field with 31% support, while Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett tops her party's race at 28%, according to a Texas Tribune/University of Texas poll released Sunday. The survey of 1,200 registered Texas voters shows both primaries remain fluid with large undecided blocs as the March 4 filing deadline approaches.
Senator John Cornyn's retirement announcement in November opened the first competitive Texas Senate race in two decades. Five Republicans and four Democrats have formally entered or signaled intent to run, with several high-profile candidates still considering bids.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican strategists view Paxton's lead as expected given his statewide name recognition and base support, though some express concern about his ongoing federal securities fraud indictment. Former Rep. Michael Burgess, polling second at 18%, argues his "proven conservative record without legal baggage" makes him the stronger general election candidate.
Texas Republican Party Chair Matt Rinaldi stated that "any of our top-tier candidates will hold this seat" in November. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, who has not ruled out entering the race, commands 14% support without formally declaring, suggesting he could reshape the field if he joins.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican strategists view Paxton's lead as expected given his statewide name recognition and base support, though some express concern about his ongoing federal securities fraud indictment. Former Rep. Michael Burgess, polling second at 18%, argues his "proven conservative record without legal baggage" makes him the stronger general election candidate.
Texas Republican Party Chair Matt Rinaldi stated that "any of our top-tier candidates will hold this seat" in November. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, who has not ruled out entering the race, commands 14% support without formally declaring, suggesting he could reshape the field if he joins.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic operatives see Crockett's polling lead as validation of her national profile and progressive credentials, though they acknowledge the challenge of winning statewide in Texas. Former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, polling second among Democrats at 21%, emphasizes his border community roots and prior statewide campaign experience from his 2020 presidential bid.
Texas Democratic Party officials argue the crowded Republican primary could produce a damaged nominee, giving Democrats their best Senate opportunity since Beto O'Rourke's 2018 run. State Senator Roland Gutierrez, at 15% in the poll, touts his gun safety advocacy following the Uvalde school shooting as resonating with suburban voters.
What the Numbers Show
The poll found 31% of Republican primary voters remain undecided, while 36% of Democratic voters haven't chosen a candidate. Paxton leads among rural voters (39%) and conservatives (42%) but trails Burgess among suburban Republicans (24%-28%). Crockett's support concentrates in urban areas (38%) and among Black voters (56%), while Castro leads among Hispanic Democrats (34%-22%).
Generic ballot testing shows Republicans leading 52%-43% statewide, consistent with Texas's partisan baseline. However, 68% of voters said they want "new leadership" rather than career politicians, potentially complicating both Paxton's and Castro's paths despite their leads.
The Bottom Line
Both parties face competitive primaries that could extend to May 20 runoffs if no candidate clears 50%. The winner of each primary will compete for a seat that hasn't flipped parties since 1988. Early voting begins February 18, with strategists expecting low turnout to amplify the influence of each party's most engaged voters.