Early voting for the March 5 Texas Republican Senate primary began on Feb. 5, and leading GOP officials expressed concern that a crowded field could make the contest unusually competitive.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002, faces multiple challengers including Attorney General Ken Paxton and several state legislators, marking the first time in a decade that his re‑election campaign has attracted serious primary opposition.
What the Left Is Saying
Texas Democratic Party officials said the competitive GOP primary could create an opening for a Democratic challenger, noting that a split Republican vote may weaken the incumbent's base.
Progressive advocacy group Demand Justice added that candidates with recent legal controversies could erode voter confidence in the GOP, urging the party to prioritize candidates with clean records.
What the Right Is Saying
Sen. John Cornyn told reporters the primary reflects a healthy democratic process and warned that a divided Republican vote could benefit opponents, emphasizing the need for a united front.
Attorney General Ken Paxton, who filed paperwork to run, said his campaign will focus on defending conservative values and argued that the competition demonstrates the party’s commitment to accountability.
What the Numbers Show
As of Feb. 5, the Texas Secretary of State reported that 1.2 million early‑voting ballots had been requested, with 600,000 already cast. Campaign finance filings show Cornyn’s campaign raised $12.3 million for the 2026 cycle, while Paxton’s exploratory committee has reported $3.5 million in contributions. A Quinnipiac poll commissioned by the Texas Tribune found Cornyn with a 48% approval rating among Republican voters, compared with 31% for Paxton.
The Bottom Line
The early‑voting rollout and the crowded GOP field set the stage for a primary that could shape the balance of power in the Senate; if the Republican vote splits, Democrats may view the race as more winnable, while GOP leaders aim to consolidate support behind a single candidate before the March 5 primary.