A new analysis by NPR finds that only about 20 of the 435 U.S. House districts are considered competitive, a drop that analysts attribute largely to the redistricting process that followed the 2020 Census.
Redistricting, which occurs every ten years after the census, determines the geographic boundaries of congressional districts. In the 2022 cycle, 30 states had Republican majorities in the legislatures responsible for drawing maps, allowing them to adopt new boundaries without bipartisan oversight.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican officials contend that the new maps reflect legitimate community interests and that competition still exists in many districts. House Republican Conference Chair Kevin McCarthy (R‑CA) stated that the maps "are the product of lawful, transparent processes" and emphasized that numerous districts remain contested. State legislative leaders in Texas and Georgia highlighted public hearings and local input as evidence of a fair redistricting process.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders argue that the maps drawn by Republican‑controlled legislatures have reduced electoral competition and entrenched partisan advantage. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) said the maps "undermine the principle of fair representation" and urged Congress to adopt independent redistricting commissions. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also warned that fewer competitive seats diminish voter choice and could depress turnout in safe districts.
What the Numbers Show
The NPR analysis defines a competitive district as one where the margin between the top two parties in the 2022 election was five percentage points or less. Using that metric, 20 seats—about 4.6% of the House—met the threshold, down from 84 seats (19%) in 2010. Of those 20 competitive seats, 12 are held by Democrats and eight by Republicans. The data also show that 31 states now have at least one district classified as safely Democratic and one safely Republican, limiting the number of truly contested races.
Several lawsuits challenging the new maps have been filed in federal courts, with plaintiffs arguing that the districts violate the Voting Rights Act by diluting minority voting strength. Courts in North Carolina and Texas have already ordered revisions to certain districts, illustrating ongoing legal disputes over the redistricting outcomes.
The Bottom Line
The concentration of safe seats limits voter choice and may influence legislative behavior, according to political scientists, and could shape the strategies of both parties heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Monitoring court decisions and any potential reforms to the redistricting process will be essential for understanding future competitiveness in House races.