U.S. officials say relentless American and Israeli aerial attacks have crippled Iran's air defenses, navy and missile arsenal. But the regime in Tehran has so far held on to power, and it effectively shut down a crucial choke point for the world's oil supplies. As the war President Donald Trump described as a "little excursion" stretched into a 12th day, Iran has shown it can trigger a global economic crisis.
The White House anticipated that waves of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leadership would swiftly upend Tehran's ruling apparatus. But Khamenei, the late supreme leader, was succeeded by his 56-year-old son, who is widely viewed as an equally hard-line ideologue with deep ties to the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There are no indications of major fissures or breakaway opposition factions, according to current and former U.S. officials, lawmakers and experts.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans have largely supported the administration's military campaign, praising the destruction of Iran's military infrastructure. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday: "The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed by the U.S. military. Their navy is depleted, their ballistic missile arsenal is being wiped out, and their internal communications have been totally disrupted."
Senate Republican leader John Thune called the operation a necessary response to Iran's destabilizing activities in the region, saying the regime had long used its military capabilities to threaten allies and disrupt global oil markets. Congressional Republicans have generally backed the administration's stance, with many arguing that failing to act would have allowed Iran to continue its nuclear program and regional aggression.
Former Trump administration officials have argued that the military campaign is achieving its objectives, pointing to U.S. Central Command's assessment that Tehran's ability to launch retaliatory attacks has been diminished. Supporters say the strikes on 16 Iranian minelaying ships demonstrate the U.S. is actively working to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats have raised questions about the administration's war planning and whether Trump and his deputies considered the regime's resilience and potential for retaliation. Critics have noted that the escalating conflict threatens to impose significant economic costs on American consumers at a time of economic uncertainty.
Senator Chris Murphy said the administration failed to articulate clear war objectives, asking what the endgame looks like and whether American families should expect higher gas prices as a result of this conflict. Progressive advocacy groups have called for congressional oversight of war powers and more transparency about the scale of military operations.
The growing fallout from Iran's retaliation around the Persian Gulf has raised questions among Democrats about whether the administration fully considered the vulnerability of the narrow Strait of Hormuz before launching airstrikes. Some have noted that the U.S. has not managed to secure the vital waterway, with commercial ships coming under fire from drones.
What the Numbers Show
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world's oil supply, making it one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy markets. The waterway has been effectively shut to tanker traffic since the war started, causing shipping insurance rates to skyrocket.
Dozens of nations agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves in a bid to ease prices. Oil prices swung during the week amid conflicting information about security along the strait, including a deleted social media post from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that incorrectly claimed the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the strait.
The White House believes it has until the end of March before rising gas prices become an "unsustainable" political issue. If the current pace of airstrikes continues for two to three more weeks, analysts estimate Iran's conventional military power would most likely be set back several years.
A Thai commercial ship was hit by "unknown" projectiles in the strait Wednesday, forcing the crew to abandon ship in a lifeboat, according to Thailand's Transport Ministry. Several commercial ships near the waterway have requested assistance or escorts from the U.S. military in recent days.
The Bottom Line
The Iranian regime's resilience poses a challenge for the Trump administration as it grapples with the mounting price of war, including U.S. military casualties and economic aftershocks, and as it struggles to articulate an endgame to the conflict.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank, told NBC News: "The regime is still intact, and continuity is the order of the day. Politically, I don't see any signs of defection or other factions choosing this moment in time to come up with a counter-worldview."
What happens next will depend on whether the administration can achieve its stated goal of degrading Iran's military capabilities while managing the economic and political fallout from disrupted oil supplies. The window for containing gas price inflation appears to be narrowing.