For more than a century, Utah has kept gambling almost entirely out of the state. There are no casinos, no lotteries and no racetracks that allow bets — a prohibition rooted in the conservative ideals of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which views gambling as a vice that leads to selfishness and addiction.
Now the state is fighting a new battle to keep gambling outside its borders. Governor Spencer Cox announced he will sign legislation intended to undercut prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow anyone with a smartphone to wager on anything from whether it will rain in Los Angeles to whether the United States will go to war.
The legislation would expand Utah's gambling ban to include wagers on certain events happening in a game rather than the game's outcome — known as proposition betting or prop bets. Examples include how well a particular player performs, or a team hitting a specific threshold like rebounds or other metrics. The bill also aims to stop sportsbook companies that have set up their own prediction markets.
Kalshi has already sued the state, asking a federal judge in late February to stop Utah from enforcing its gambling restrictions on the platform. The judge has yet to rule on the request.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservatives in Utah have framed the fight against prediction markets as a moral crusade rooted in religious values. Utah's entire congressional delegation, the governor and lieutenant governor are all members of the LDS Church, which prohibits gambling in any form.
Church doctrine says gambling is motivated by 'a desire to get something for nothing' and is destructive to individuals and families. Utah State University Professor Patrick Mason, who chairs Mormon history and culture, said faith teachings often take precedence over party politics when members view an issue as moral.
Republican Governor Spencer Cox has clashed with the Trump administration over this issue, even though he worked to improve relations with the president after not voting for him in 2016 and 2020. Cox said he will sign the legislation regardless of federal opposition.
Representative Blake Moore, while introducing regulatory legislation, has emphasized Utah's economic strength as a reason not to embrace prediction markets. 'Utah's economic outlook has been strong for many years,' he said. 'I see no need why we need to embrace these as an economic tool.'
Kalshi and Polymarket argue their products differ from traditional gambling because customers bet against each other rather than against the house, similar to how farmers use futures markets to manage risk. The companies also note that derivative markets like the Chicago Board of Trade have long offered binary options.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats and progressive advocates have raised concerns about prediction markets enabling wagering on violence, elections and other sensitive events. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy called the current state of prediction markets 'insane' on social media, and Democratic senators have said they will introduce legislation to ban wagers on violence.
Democratic lawmakers have supported the bipartisan effort led by Republican Rep. Blake Moore of Utah and Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal of California to more aggressively regulate prediction markets. The bill would prohibit the platforms from allowing bets on war, assassinations, terrorist attacks or election outcomes.
Progressive critics have also highlighted the potential harms to young people. Governor Cox said prediction markets are 'targeting especially young people' and described the practice as 'really awful.'
The CFTC under Trump has asserted exclusive regulatory oversight of prediction markets, with Chairman Michael Selig saying in a video statement: 'To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear, we will see you in court.'
What the Numbers Show
Kalshi and Polymarket are each estimated to be worth $20 billion after their last fundraising rounds. The prediction market industry has grown significantly, with the bulk of Kalshi's trading volume and roughly half of Polymarket's now tied to sports.
Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in volume traded on the Super Bowl alone. Contracts on these platforms are typically priced between one cent and 99 cents, roughly translating to the percentage chance customers believe an event will occur.
Utah has prohibited gambling since statehood in 1895. Along with Hawaii, it maintains the strictest gambling prohibitions in the country — the state doesn't even allow broad multi-state lotteries like Powerball or Mega Millions.
About half of Utah's 3.5 million residents are members of the LDS Church. Courts have seen mixed rulings on prediction market bans: judges in Nevada and Massachusetts have ruled in favor of states looking to ban the platforms, while judges in New Jersey and Tennessee have ruled in favor of Kalshi.
The Bottom Line
The conflict puts Utah at the frontline of a national battle over whether prediction markets constitute financial instruments or illegal gambling. Georgia State University Professor Todd Phillips, who has written extensively about prediction market regulation, said: 'The line between gambling and finance is very, very fine. There's a reason why Congress has, over and over again, stepped in to define and regulate financial markets when the products skew too close to gambling.'
If Congress does not clarify whether prediction markets are legal, the issue will likely be decided in courts. Utah's action could influence how other states handle the question, particularly those with religious objections to gambling.
The legal outcome remains uncertain. A federal judge has not yet ruled on Kalshi's request to block Utah's law, and the CFTC has pledged to defend the industry's right to operate nationwide. Whatever happens in Utah could set a precedent for the nation's broader regulatory framework.