Millersburg, Pennsylvania — In a swing district that could determine control of Congress, NBC News spent a day at a gas station talking to voters about the war in Iran, rising gas prices and their feelings toward President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
The interviews took place at a gas station in Millersburg, a small community 25 miles north of Harrisburg in Pennsylvania's competitive 10th Congressional District. The location was chosen because the war and fuel prices were fresh on voters' minds as they pumped gas, providing a natural opportunity to discuss the issues.
Rep. Scott Perry, the Republican incumbent, narrowly won re-election in 2024 and his race is widely viewed as a toss-up this year. The district is heavily Republican outside of Harrisburg, making it a key target for both parties in the midterms.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and their allies argue that voters like those interviewed at the Millersburg gas station represent a fundamental shift in how Trump supporters view his presidency. They point to anger over gas prices and opposition to the war in Iran as evidence that Trump's coalition is fracturing.
Amanda Robbins, a 35-year-old Millersburg resident who voted for Trump three times, told NBC News she was upset with the president over gas prices and the war in Iran. 'You are a worthless pile of s---,' she said she would tell Trump if she knew he would see it. 'That was my bad. Apparently, I'm an idiot,' Robbins said, reflecting on her votes.
Progressive activists argue that voters like Robbins who are disillusioned with Trump may sit out the midterm elections or vote for third-party candidates, potentially hurting Republican chances of holding the House and Senate. Democrats have long argued that mobilizing disaffected voters is key to their midterm strategy.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans acknowledge that some Trump voters have concerns about gas prices and the war, but they argue that the president's base remains largely loyal. They point to polls showing strong support among Republican voters and note that GOP voters turn out in higher numbers during midterm elections when Trump is not on the ballot.
Party strategists say their focus is on ensuring Trump voters who supported the president in 2024 show up again in November. Republican officials have expressed confidence that concerns about immigration, the economy and Trump's judicial appointments will motivate their base to vote.
The party is also betting that any voter anger over gas prices or the war will be offset by Democratic divisions over similar issues. Republican leaders have noted that swing voters in suburban districts have historically punished the party out of power during midterms.
What the Numbers Show
Pennsylvania's 10th District was one of the closest House races in the country in 2024, with Perry winning by a narrow margin. The district voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, though by smaller margins than many other Republican districts.
Gas prices have risen nationally since the conflict with Iran escalated. The average price of gasoline in Pennsylvania has increased by roughly 15% over the past month, according to AAA data.
Voter turnout in midterms is typically lower than presidential election years. In 2022, midterm turnout nationally was about 46%, compared to roughly 66% in the 2020 presidential election. Mobilizing Trump voters who came out in 2024 for the midterms remains a key challenge for both parties.
The Bottom Line
The gas station interviews in Millersburg illustrate the complex dynamics facing both parties in competitive districts. While some Trump voters express frustration with the war and gas prices, it remains unclear whether this will translate into changed voting behavior or lower turnout in November.
Republicans face the task of motivating their base without Trump on the ballot, while Democrats hope disillusioned Trump voters will either stay home or vote for Democratic candidates. The outcome in Pennsylvania's 10th District and similar swing districts could determine control of the House and Senate.
What happens at the pump in the coming months — both in terms of prices and voter sentiment — may prove to be a decisive factor in the midterms. Both parties will be watching closely.