Tom Kean Jr.'s political pedigree dates to 1776, when one of his ancestors became New Jersey's first leader after the United States declared independence. His great-grandfather was a U.S. senator, his grandfather was a congressman and his father was a governor who later led the 9/11 Commission. But the family lineage may not be enough to protect Kean in this year's midterm elections.
The Republican congressman represents New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a scenic mix of bedroom communities and farming towns perpetually on the shifting front lines of American politics. Two previous incumbents were ousted during midterm elections over the past decade: Kean defeated Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022, after Malinowski beat Republican Leonard Lance in 2018.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats are aggressively targeting Kean as part of their effort to regain control of the U.S. House, viewing his seat as one of their best pickup opportunities. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified Kean as one of 44 lawmakers they hope to oust.
Democratic leaders are already attacking Kean over several issues tied to the Trump administration. They have criticized his support for Trump's tariffs, opposed a proposed immigration detention facility at a local warehouse, and challenged the administration's attempt to cancel funding for a new rail tunnel that would ease commuting into New York City.
"Career politician Tom Kean Jr. has come to represent everything that people hate about a broken and corrupt Washington," said Eli Lake, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Democrats and a GOP-controlled town council sued to stop the proposed immigration detention facility, filing their challenge on Friday. Kean has said he is working on a "workable solution" for the facility.
Critics have also faulted Kean for keeping a low profile and avoiding in-person town hall meetings. In 2018, during Trump's first midterm elections, such events attracted critics who occasionally drowned out the soft-spoken congressman. Some voters said they plan to support the eventual Democratic candidate because "rich people have so much power and so much influence that it's got to be counterbalanced."
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans say Kean's long record of constituent service and his work on bipartisan legislation will help him defy political history.
"Voters trust Kean Jr. because they know his record, and they're fired up to send him back to Washington," said Maureen O'Toole, spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee.
Kean's campaign is emphasizing his work on expanding the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT. The new Trump administration tax package raised the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000, a change that Kean supported and Republicans in competitive seats prioritized.
"Congressman Kean has proven himself an independent leader who delivers for his district," said campaign consultant Harrison Neely. "He was a cornerstone of the coalition that fully restored the SALT deduction for middle-class families, providing meaningful tax relief."
Former Congressman Leonard Lance, whom Kean succeeded, said Kean is not taking anything for granted. "He recognizes that this is a highly competitive district," Lance said.
Kean has also received Trump's formal endorsement, pinning a message of gratitude on social media. The district includes the president's golf club in Bedminster.
What the Numbers Show
The 7th Congressional District has become slightly more Republican since being redrawn nearly five years ago. However, the district has a history of swinging between parties in midterm elections.
The SALT deduction was capped at $10,000 under legislation signed by Trump during his first term. The new tax law raises the limit to $40,000, though it will eventually drop back to $10,000 in 2030.
Kean is one of 44 House Republicans that Democrats have targeted for defeat. If Democrats win control of the House, they would need to flip at least that many seats.
The Democratic primary in Kean's district remains unsettled, with a half-dozen candidates competing in the June 2 primary election.
The Bottom Line
Kean's famous political lineage may be tested in a district that has proven volatile in midterm elections. The challenge for the incumbent is balancing support for parts of Trump's agenda that resonate politically, such as tax cuts, while avoiding voter anger over other elements, including the proposed immigration detention facility and opposition to the Gateway rail tunnel.
The SALT deduction change could provide political cover for Kean, as it directly benefits homeowners in a district where property taxes are among the highest in the country. But with voters already seeing Trump signs on farms in the area, Kean will need to navigate the president's shadow carefully.
The June 2 Democratic primary will determine who faces Kean in what promises to be one of the most competitive House races in the country. The outcome could serve as an early indicator of whether a blue wave is building ahead of the midterm elections.