Virginia Democrats are pressing Gov. Abigail Spanberger to deliver on their redistricting campaign as the April special election nears, with party strategists warning she will bear responsibility if the referendum fails and jeopardizes Democratic chances in November's House elections.
The redistricting measure, if approved by voters, could deliver Democrats a 10-to-1 seat advantage in Virginia — four more seats than they would likely win under the current congressional map. Democrats hold a fundraising advantage ten times that of Republicans, though early voting data shows strong GOP turnout.
With less than one month remaining, nearly a dozen Democratic state lawmakers, strategists and candidates say Spanberger needs to be more assertive in promoting the referendum. They warn she will face blame if the effort fails, potentially affecting her rising national profile.
Spanberger this week launched her first campaign ad endorsing the referendum — as POLITICO first reported. But critics call it the bare minimum for an effort Democrats have designated as a top priority in countering GOP-led redistricting in other states.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans are capitalizing on voter confusion and skepticism about the redistricting referendum. Polling shows nearly two-thirds of Virginians support the current method of drawing congressional districts, and slightly more than half said they would vote to keep the existing process in place, according to a Roanoke College survey last month.
The Virginia Supreme Court has reserved the right to potentially nullify the redistricting push after the April election, adding uncertainty to the Democratic effort.
Some voters remain skeptical of the dramatic map changes proposed by Democrats, particularly those who approved a constitutional amendment creating a bipartisan redistricting commission in 2020 by a two-to-one margin. The April timing, rather than November, presents a logistical challenge for Democrats seeking to mobilize voters.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and party strategists argue Spanberger should be the face of the redistricting campaign, pointing to her 2025 gubernatorial victory as reason for her to take a leading role.
"We Democrats gotta stop bringing a spork to a knife fight. If the Democrats are putting all their stock in this, like, let's bring our A game," said Democrat Beth Macy, who is running for Congress in one of five House districts currently held by Republicans. She added that it would be "helpful" for Spanberger "to be the spokesperson on redistricting because she did so well and won by so much."
A Democratic activist in Virginia who has worked closely with the pro-redistricting campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly, questioned Spanberger's approach: "How could she watch what Gavin Newsom just did and do the exact opposite? Out in the field, we really don't know whether she is for or against this thing."
Spanberger's defenders argue the campaign is a collective effort, noting support from Lt. Gov., Attorney General and Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Her spokesperson pointed to her extensive voter outreach, stating "There isn't a Democrat in Virginia who has done more to encourage voters to support this referendum than Governor Spanberger."
What the Numbers Show
Fundraising in the redistricting campaign shows a significant Democratic advantage. Virginia for Fair Elections has amassed more than $33 million in donations to support the "yes" campaign, vastly outspending Republican counterparts.
Polling data presents challenges for the pro-redistricting effort. The Roanoke College survey found 65% of Virginians support the current method of drawing congressional districts. A separate January survey found 51% supported the Democratic-backed push to redraw lines — a slim majority.
Early voting turnout among Republicans has been strong, despite Democrats' financial edge. The April special election timing is viewed by some Democrats as a "gargantuan undertaking" compared to November general elections.
If the referendum passes, Democrats could gain a 10-to-1 seat advantage in Virginia's congressional delegation — four more seats than under current maps. This could significantly impact the battle for House control in November.
The Bottom Line
The April redistricting referendum represents a high-stakes test for Gov. Spanberger less than four months into her term. Democrats need strong voter turnout to pass the measure, and Spanberger's political future may be tied to its outcome.
The governor has endorsed the referendum and launched her first campaign ad, but progressive allies say more aggressive outreach is needed. With Virginia's Supreme Court potentially nullifying the result and polling showing narrow support, the outcome remains uncertain.
What happens next: The April special election will determine whether Virginia adopts new congressional maps. If the referendum fails, Democrats lose their path to a 10-to-1 seat advantage and Spanberger faces potential political fallout. If it passes, the maps will be redrawn ahead of November's House elections, potentially reshaping Virginia's political landscape for years to come.