Rep. Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat serving his sixth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, has implemented an office-wide policy prohibiting his staff from participating in prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The policy, announced Wednesday, bars staffers from trading or holding positions on political, legislative, regulatory, geopolitical outcomes, or any information learned in an official capacity. Moulton is the first member of Congress to institute such a blanket prohibition.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and good-government advocates have praised Moulton's policy as a necessary step to prevent conflicts of interest in Congress. The lawmaker's office framed the move as part of a broader effort to uphold ethical standards in government.
'Prediction markets have become a playground for corrupt insiders who are able to place bets on things like election outcomes, wars, and even the deaths of public figures. This is creating a perverse incentive structure that poses a genuine threat to American society today,' Moulton said in a statement.
The congressman emphasized that congressional staff and members exist to serve constituents, not to profit from policy decisions and world events. 'My office has not, and will not, engage in these trades that run counter to every principle of a clean, honest government that works for the people,' he said.
What the Right Is Saying
Some conservative Republicans have expressed skepticism about prediction markets but have taken varied approaches to regulating them. Some view the markets as free-market expressions of collective intelligence, while others have raised concerns about potential insider trading and market manipulation.
Republican lawmakers have previously questioned whether prediction markets create perverse incentives for actors with access to nonpublic information. Some conservatives have supported efforts to increase transparency in political betting markets, though comprehensive federal legislation has not advanced.
Moulton is currently challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate Democratic primary, a race that has drawn attention to his positions on government ethics and campaign reform.
What the Numbers Show
Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offering contracts on election outcomes, legislative developments, and geopolitical events. These markets allow users to trade based on their predictions of future outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective assessment of probabilities.
Polymarket, which operates primarily through blockchain-based platforms, has seen trading volumes reach hundreds of millions of dollars on major political events. Kalshi, designated as a designated contract market by the CFTC, offers prediction markets on economic and political outcomes.
Congressional ethics rules have historically prohibited members and staff from using nonpublic information for personal financial gain. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires members to disclose certain stock trades, though prediction market transactions have existed in a regulatory gray area.
The Bottom Line
Moulton's policy represents the first explicit congressional office-wide ban on prediction market participation by staff. The move comes as these markets face increased scrutiny over concerns that individuals with access to nonpublic information could profit from trading on political and legislative outcomes.
The policy positions Moulton as a champion of government ethics at a time when prediction markets face growing criticism from both parties. His Senate campaign has emphasized his commitment to reform, though primary voters will ultimately assess whether the message resonates. Experts say other offices may watch closely to see if similar policies emerge across the Capitol.