Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) are essentially tied in the New Hampshire Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), according to an Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday.

The poll showed Pappas receiving 45 percent support while Sununu received 44 percent in a hypothetical matchup. Because the polling falls within the survey's 2.9 margin of error, the two candidates are effectively neck-and-neck. An additional 11 percent said they would vote for "someone else" or remained undecided.

What the Right Is Saying

Republicans have celebrated Sununu as a key recruit, noting his strong performance in the Emerson College poll among GOP primary voters. The survey showed Sununu receiving close to 48 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, far outpacing former Sen. Scott Brown at 19 percent.

Conservative supporters have emphasized Sununu's appeal to middle-aged voters, a key swing demographic in New Hampshire. The poll showed voters in their 50s and 60s breaking for Sununu by 12 points (51% to 39%), while men overall supported him by six points (48% to 42%). Republicans argue Sununu's crossover appeal could help him perform better in the general election than his primary competitors.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has signaled its intent to make this race competitive, viewing Sununu as the nominee who gives Republicans their best chance to flip the seat. Some conservative commentators have noted that Sununu's moderate reputation could help him in a general election against Pappas in the purple state.

What the Left Is Saying

Democrats have expressed confidence in Pappas's candidacy, pointing to his electoral history in a swing district and the Cook Political Report's rating of the seat as "lean Democrat." The nonpartisan election handicapper has maintained that Democrats are favored to hold the open seat despite Sununu's high name recognition from his three terms in the Senate.

Progressive supporters have highlighted Pappas's strong support among women and younger voters. According to the Emerson College Polling data, women support Pappas by a nine-point margin (49% to 40%), while voters under 40 support him by a 23-point margin (54% to 31%). These demographic advantages have fueled Democratic optimism about maintaining the seat.

National Democrats successfully recruited Pappas to run for the open seat, viewing him as their strongest candidate. The congressman has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District since 2019, winning re-election in 2024 by a comfortable margin despite the district's competitive nature.

What the Numbers Show

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between March 21 and March 23, with 1,000 likely New Hampshire voters surveyed. The overall margin of error is 2.9 percentage points. For the Republican primary subsample of 524 likely voters, the margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.

In a hypothetical matchup between Pappas and Scott Brown, the Democrat widens his lead significantly to 48 percent versus 39 percent, with 13 percent supporting someone else or undecided. This suggests Pappas would fare better against Brown than against Sununu.

Among all voters, the poll showed Pappas with a nine-point lead among women (49%-40%) and Sununu with a six-point lead among men (48%-42%). Age demographics showed Pappas leading among voters under 40 by 23 points and voters over 70 by six points, while Sununu led among voters in their 50s and 60s by 12 points.

In the GOP primary, Sununu leads Brown 48 percent to 19 percent, but 33 percent of Republican primary voters remain undecided, indicating the race is not yet decided despite Sununu's advantage.

The Bottom Line

The New Hampshire Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the 2026 midterms. While Cook Political Report rates the seat as "lean Democrat," Sununu's strong polling performance and high name recognition make this a race Democrats cannot take for granted.

The fundamental tension in this race hinges on demographics: Pappas performs well with women and younger voters, while Sununu maintains an edge with older men. The eventual outcome may depend on which coalition turns out in greater numbers during the general election.

Sununu will need to convert the 33 percent of undecided Republican primary voters to secure the nomination, while Pappas will likely maintain his polling lead against Brown if Sununu stumbles. Both campaigns will be watching subsequent polls closely as the race develops toward November.