Gov. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner are battling over female voters as Maine's critical Senate race heats up, underscoring how the group could be decisive both in the June Democratic primary and the November general election.
The winner will face GOP Sen. Susan Collins in the fall, a race that is must-win for Democrats in their quest to net four seats and take control of the Senate. Collins has been able to survive in the blue-leaning state in part because of her appeal among female voters.
What the Right Is Saying
Platner's campaign has aggressively countered by pointing to his background as a combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. The campaign has attributed those 2013 posts to struggles with post-traumatic stress disorder following his military service.
The campaign has also been heavily targeting women with ads online: 80% of its spending on ads on Google this year has targeted only female voters, according to the platform's ad tracker. The campaign argues that Platner's military service and progressive policy positions make him the stronger general election candidate against Collins.
Some conservative observers note that Platner's polling lead among male voters suggests he could expand the Democratic coalition in a way Mills cannot. An Emerson College poll showed Platner with a 41-point advantage among men in the Democratic primary.
What the Left Is Saying
Mills and Platner in recent days have launched TV ads narrated by women and held dueling events highlighting women who are backing their campaigns. The latest missive came Thursday as Mills released another TV ad targeting Platner over online posts in 2013 in which he downplayed sexual assault.
Progressive supporters of Mills emphasize that female voters should trust the incumbent governor, who has championed reproductive rights and women's health during her tenure. "It's hard to imagine winning the Maine primary without doing well amongst women, and particularly older women," said David Farmer, a Maine Democratic strategist who is not involved in the Senate race. He noted that women over age 65 tend to make up a plurality of primary voters in Maine.
The Mills campaign has sought to frame the race as a choice between a proven Democratic leader and a challenger whose past posts are disqualifying for female voters. The campaign has highlighted Platner's 2013 online comments as inconsistent with Democratic values on women's issues.
What the Numbers Show
A new Emerson College poll of likely Democratic primary voters released this week found Platner leading Mills by nearly 30 points, with 13% of voters undecided. Among women specifically, Platner held an 18-point advantage. Among men, his lead expanded to 41 points.
During Collins' last re-election race in 2020, she narrowly won female voters by 3 points, even as President Donald Trump lost them by 23 points, according to NBC News exit polling. This history suggests female voters will be decisive in the general election as well.
National polling shows women are particularly engaged ahead of midterm elections. A recent national NBC News poll found 67% of women rated themselves as 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale measuring their interest in the election, compared with 61% of men. The survey also found women favoring Democrats in the battle for Congress by 7 points, while men favored Republicans by 9 points.
The Bottom Line
The battle for female voters in Maine's Senate race reflects broader national dynamics where women are more engaged and more likely to support Democratic candidates. Both Mills and Platner recognize that winning the June primary requires strong support among women, particularly older women who make up a plurality of primary voters.
The winner will face Collins in what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate races of the cycle. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the Senate, making Maine one of their top pickup opportunities. How female voters break in the primary could determine whether Democrats have their best chance against Collins in November.