A year and a half after Donald Trump's victory in Wisconsin, Democrats are sensing a political shift that could reshape power in the critical battleground state. In the last three months, seven state Republican lawmakers have announced their retirements — including the party leaders in both the Assembly and the Senate — providing a boost to Democrats' hopes they could win control of at least one legislative chamber for the first time in 16 years.
The retirements include Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who had held the position since Republican Gov. Scott Walker first took office, and Wisconsin Senate President Devin LeMahieu, who announced last week he would not seek another term. All seven retiring Republicans except one have served in the Legislature for at least a decade, with many serving far longer.
What the Left Is Saying
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Devin Remiker said the retirements confirm what his party already believed about their opportunity in 2026. 'These retirements have largely confirmed what we had already thought, which is that we have an extraordinary opportunity this year in Wisconsin,' Remiker said in an interview. 'I think that a very potent disaster is brewing for Republicans, and it is my desire to capitalize on it by winning the Democratic trifecta.'
Democrats have been working to unravel Republicans' hold on state power that began in 2010, when the GOP achieved a trifecta — control of the governorship and both legislative chambers. With majorities in the Legislature and on the Supreme Court, Walker enacted a sweeping conservative agenda over two terms. Since then, Democrats have gained control of the governorship and the Supreme Court, and are now looking to make inroads in the Legislature with more competitive district maps.
After retaining their majority on the state Supreme Court in an expensive 2025 race, liberals could put control of the bench out of reach for conservatives for the rest of the decade. Democrats have won 18 of the last 23 statewide races in Wisconsin, and party strategists believe recent success stems from their ability to seize on anti-Trump sentiment, particularly in midterm elections.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican Party spokesperson Anika Rickard rejected the notion that the raft of GOP lawmaker retirements would fuel Democratic gains. 'I don't think their departures indicate anything when it comes to flipping the Senate or the Assembly,' she said. 'We're very confident we'll hold both of those.' Rickard expressed optimism around her party's prospects in the Supreme Court and governor races as well. 'The energy is still on our side, not with Democrats.'
Republican strategist Mark Graul acknowledged the significant leadership turnover but suggested it reflects natural political cycles rather than Democratic momentum. 'There is certainly a changing of the guard,' Graul said. 'The top three people in the Capitol today are all not going to be there a year from now. It's going to be a significant turnover in terms of who's making decisions in that building come next year.'
Graul argued that Democratic success in 2026 is less about their own accomplishments and more about political reaction to the Trump administration. 'What's shaping Wisconsin, in 2026, to be a good year for Democrats is what's happening in Washington, not what is happening in Wisconsin,' he said.
What the Numbers Show
Recent polling from Marquette University Law School conducted in mid-March provides insight into the current political environment. About half of Wisconsin Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the April state Supreme Court election, compared to just a third of Republicans. The survey showed 56% of registered voters disapproved of Trump's job performance — the highest share from any Marquette Wisconsin poll during his two terms in office, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
In the open Supreme Court race, Democratic-backed candidate Chris Taylor holds a clear fundraising and ad spending advantage over Republican-backed candidate Maria Lazar. In the Marquette poll, Taylor held a slight lead with 30% support compared to 22% for Lazar, while 46% of voters said they remained undecided. To win control of the state Senate, Democrats would need to net two seats; to secure a majority in the Assembly, they would need to net five seats.
The 2026 governor's race will also bring significant change. Of the eight Democratic candidates in Marquette's poll, only former lieutenant governor and Senate candidate Mandela Barnes had name identification above 50%. The primary will mark a generational shift, as the leading candidates are all much younger than Gov. Tony Evers, who is 74. Wisconsin has remained a swing state despite its recent Democratic winning streak — the last three presidential elections were decided by less than 1 point, with Trump winning two of them.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 elections in Wisconsin represent a pivotal moment for both parties as Democrats seek to consolidate power at the state level while Republicans attempt to maintain their legislative majorities. The wave of Republican retirements, particularly among top leadership, creates both uncertainty and opportunity for the minority party.
The April Supreme Court race will serve as an early indicator of electoral momentum heading into the fall. A Taylor victory would give liberals effective control of the bench for the foreseeable future and could provide Democrats with significant momentum heading into the governor's race and down-ballot legislative contests.
Regardless of what happens over the next seven months, Wisconsin will once again be at the center of the political map in 2028. The outcome of this year's races will determine not only the balance of power in Madison but also shape the political landscape for the next presidential election cycle in what remains one of the nation's most competitive battleground states.