Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the leading choice among conservative activists for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to a straw poll conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas.
Vance earned approximately 53 percent of support from attendees participating in the presidential preference poll at CPAC, the annual gathering that has long served as an early barometer of conservative sentiment. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second with 35 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied for third place at 2 percent each.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative supporters of Vance have pointed to his status as Trump's chosen running mate in 2024 as evidence of his standing within the party. CPAC attendees have consistently ranked Vance at the top of their straw polls since he joined the ticket, and his current position reflects what many see as his natural role as heir apparent to the MAGA movement.
Vance himself has sought to downplay any rivalry with Rubio, telling Fox News host Sean Hannity in November that he does not view the secretary of state as a rival. 'I don't feel like that at all,' Vance said, adding that it would be 'ridiculous' to call Rubio a rival given both men are colleagues.
Rubio has similarly dismissed speculation of competition, telling Vanity Fair in December that he would be 'one of the first people to support' Vance if the vice president decided to run for the White House. The friendly relationship between the two men has reassured many conservatives who prefer a unified party heading into 2028.
Some conservative commentators have noted that Trump's decision to skip CPAC this year — the first time in a decade — reflects the president's focus on ongoing international tensions rather than primary politics, though the absence also leaves a vacuum that Vance has moved to fill.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive critics have questioned whether Vance's position reflects genuine conservative support or simply loyalty to the Trump administration. Some Democrats have noted that the vice president's rise represents a continuation of Trump's influence over the party, arguing that the CPAC poll demonstrates how thoroughly MAGA-aligned Republicans have consolidated around the sitting administration's preferred successor.
Democratic strategists have also pointed to recent signs of uncertainty within the Trump circle about who should carry the party standard in 2028. The Hill reported that one Republican fundraiser described Trump as 'struggling' with the question of succession, noting the president's recent praise of Rubio's diplomatic work has introduced fresh speculation over the party's future direction.
Some progressive commentators have argued that Vance's frontrunner status obscures broader questions about the GOP's direction, suggesting that conservative activists at CPAC may be more focused on maintaining Trump's agenda than evaluating candidates on their own merits.
What the Numbers Show
Vance's 53 percent showing represents a decline from his 61 percent support at last year's CPAC straw poll, when he earned majority backing from 1,022 attendees. The drop of roughly 8 percentage points coincides with increased attention on Rubio, who jumped from just 3 percent support in 2025 to 35 percent this year.
The polling also shows a significant consolidation of support among the top two candidates, with Vance and Rubio combining for 88 percent of attendee preferences. The remaining candidates — including Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — each received just 1 percent support.
Trump Jr., despite his high profile as the president's son, received only 2 percent support, well behind both Vance and Rubio. DeSantis, who ran a competitive primary campaign in 2024, also received 2 percent.
Notably absent from significant support are several high-profile Trump administration officials who appeared on the ballot, reflecting a clear preference among CPAC attendees for the two figures most closely associated with Trump's inner circle.
The Bottom Line
The CPAC straw poll results confirm what many Republican strategists have long anticipated: Vance and Rubio have emerged as the clear frontrunners for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with both candidates commanding significant support from the party's most engaged voters. The gap between them — roughly 18 percentage points — suggests Vance maintains a commanding lead, but Rubio's dramatic rise from just 3 percent last year indicates growing enthusiasm for the secretary of state among conservative activists.
Trump's decision to skip CPAC this year, reportedly due to ongoing tensions with Iran and pressure over energy prices ahead of the midterms, leaves a visible void that both potential candidates are positioning to fill. The president's apparent ambivalence about explicitly endorsing either successor has created space for both Vance and Rubio to build their own coalitions within the MAGA movement.
Looking ahead, the 2028 nomination contest will likely depend on how effectively each candidate can position themselves as Trump's rightful heir while also establishing independent political identities. The friendly rhetoric between Vance and Rubio suggests both recognize that the primary electorate may not reward open rivalry, though the substantial gap in current polling indicates Vance has a significant head start.