Prediction market platform Polymarket issued an apology after allowing users to place bets on the fate of American pilots aboard a U.S. fighter jet downed over Iran, as a search and rescue operation was still underway.
A two-seater F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down on Friday, according to a U.S. official. One crew member was rescued, while the other remains missing. In a since-deleted market, users could wager on when the pilots might be rescued, with the majority predicting a Saturday rescue.
The market read: "US confirms pilots rescued by..."
What the Left Is Saying
Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat from Massachusetts and U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq, slammed the market in a post on X.
"They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member," Moulton wrote. "And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved."
"This is DISGUSTING," he added.
In a reply to Moulton's post, Polymarket apologized and said it took the market down immediately. "It does not meet our integrity standards," the company wrote. "It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards."
Moulton replied to the apology, saying the company's "integrity standards are severely lacking" and pointing to other war-related bets still active on the platform.
"Taking down this particular bet after I called it out can only be the first step, @Polymarket," he wrote. "There are still 219 war bets active on your platform. Remove these immediately."
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., has also pledged to introduce legislation to ban bets tied to government actions, citing wagers made on the ongoing war. The Senate bill introduced last month by lawmakers would ban prediction markets from accepting transactions related to sports events and casino-style games.
What the Right Is Saying
Some conservative commentators have defended prediction markets as a form of free expression and economic activity, arguing that they aggregate information and reflect public sentiment rather than influence events.
Others have noted that prediction markets have existed for decades as forecasting tools and that the criticism conflates different types of wagers. The broader prediction market industry has argued that such platforms provide valuable forecasting data and are protected forms of speech.
Conservative lawmakers have expressed skepticism about increased regulatory intervention in markets, preferring market-based solutions over government mandates. Some Republicans have raised concerns about federal agencies overreach into emerging financial technologies.
Notably, the Senate bill targeting prediction markets was introduced with bipartisan support and focuses primarily on sports-related betting and casino-style games rather than political or war-related markets.
What the Numbers Show
Polymarket removed one market after criticism, but 219 war-related bets remain active on the platform as of Friday.
The F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran on Friday. One pilot was rescued; one remains missing.
Prediction markets have seen surging popularity, with trading volume increasing significantly over the past year. Congressional scrutiny has intensified accordingly.
The Senate bill introduced last month would ban prediction markets from listing transactions related to sports events and casino-style games. Sen. Murphy's planned legislation would go further, targeting bets tied to government actions.
The Bottom Line
Polymarket's apology and removal of the Iran pilot market does not resolve broader questions about the ethics and regulation of prediction markets. With 219 war-related bets still active on the platform, critics like Rep. Moulton are calling for more comprehensive action.
The incident comes as prediction markets face increasing congressional scrutiny. Two pieces of legislation are in development: one targeting sports and casino-style betting, and another specifically addressing bets on government actions.
The company says it is investigating how the market slipped through its internal safeguards. Watch for potential regulatory action and ongoing debate about where to draw the line on what events can be wagered upon.