Wisconsin voters will head to the polls Tuesday to decide an open seat on the state Supreme Court, a contest that has become a referendum on the Wisconsin Republican Party's ability to compete in critical elections.

The seat was created when conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley announced her retirement after her current term. Liberal candidate Chris Taylor and conservative candidate Maria Lazar are vying for the position, which will determine whether the liberal majority remains at 4-3 or expands to a 5-2 advantage.

Taylor, a state Court of Appeals judge who previously served as a Democratic state representative, leads Lazar in recent polling. The race has drawn significantly more campaign money to the liberal side, with Taylor's campaign raising nearly $6.2 million compared to Lazar's $1.2 million.

What the Right Is Saying

Republicans acknowledge their party faces significant challenges in matching Democratic fundraising and organizational capacity.

The conservative campaign apparatus is really degraded over the course of the last 10 years or so, particularly in the fundraising side of things, said Republican strategist Ben Voelkel, a former aide to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). The state party really does not have the same kind of money, oomph, that it has had in the past, certainly not what Democrats have going now.

Some Republicans have expressed frustration that Lazar has not more intentionally emphasized key issues that matter to the conservative base. If you're a Republican voter, what reason has Maria Lazar's campaign given you to show up and go to a poll on Tuesday? asked a Wisconsin Republican operative who has run statewide races.

Lazar, a state Court of Appeals judge who served as assistant attorney general under two Republican Wisconsin attorneys general, has positioned herself as independent and impartial. During the debate, she criticized Taylor as a radical, extreme legislator known as the most liberal of the 99 in the Assembly.

The state GOP gave or spent only about $96,000 on behalf of Lazar's campaign during the same period the Democrats contributed $750,000 to Taylor.

Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming pushed back against criticism, noting the party doesn't run campaigns but helps facilitate fundraising and field operations. He pointed out that Republicans still hold majorities in the state Assembly and Senate, and successfully defended seats held by GOP Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden.

We need the resources now so we can start building it, because the Democrats have been doing that consistently, and we are behind, and we need to catch up, said Wisconsin State Treasurer John Leiber (R).

What the Left Is Saying

Democrats and their allies frame the race as a continuation of their recent electoral success in Wisconsin, where they have built a formidable campaign apparatus.

The Taylor campaign has done a very effective job of inserting issues that matter to progressive voters, chief among them abortion, and making the case that that is on the line Tuesday, said a Wisconsin Republican operative who has run statewide races.

Taylor has been more explicit about her judicial philosophy than her opponent. During a Thursday debate, she stated she would have voted against implementing the 1849 criminal abortion ban, which was superseded by subsequent laws. I think it was the right decision, Taylor said.

The state Democratic Party has provided substantial financial support to Taylor's campaign. Between January 1 and March 23, the state Democratic Party gave or spent nearly $750,000 on behalf of the Taylor campaign.

Wisconsin Democrats have become a fundraising powerhouse under former state party chair Ben Wikler, whose success in reversing the party's fortunes led him to be considered a candidate for Democratic National Committee chair last year. He is also being floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.

What the Numbers Show

The fundraising gap between the two candidates is substantial. Taylor's campaign has raised approximately $5 million more than Lazar's, a roughly 5-to-1 ratio. The state party contribution disparity is even more pronounced: Democrats gave nearly eight times more to their candidate than Republicans contributed to theirs.

Polling from Marquette Law School last month showed the president's approval rating at 42 percent, with a corresponding 56 percent disapproval rating. Meanwhile, polling conducted in February 2025 showed former President Trump with a 48 percent approval rating and 51 percent disapproval rating.

The current state Supreme Court composition is 4-3 liberal. A Taylor win would expand that to 5-2, making it more difficult for conservatives to reclaim the majority in future elections.

Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin State Legislature, maintaining majorities in the Assembly and Senate despite recent electoral challenges.

The Wisconsin GOP has recruited 5,300 volunteers to serve as poll workers and poll watchers this cycle and trained more than 300 local candidates through the party's Farm Team Training Program.

The Bottom Line

The Tuesday judicial election represents both a test of Republican rebuilding efforts and an opportunity for liberals to cement their majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. With control of the court at stake and Democrats holding a significant financial advantage, the race highlights broader questions about party infrastructure in battleground states.

If Taylor wins as expected, the liberal majority will expand to two seats, making it significantly harder for conservatives to regain control of the court in future elections. The outcome will likely intensify scrutiny of Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming and the party's fundraising apparatus.

National Republicans acknowledge Wisconsin remains critical to deciding congressional majorities and presidential elections. The party faces pressure to invest more heavily in the state, though some argue the fundraising challenges are symptomatic of broader trends affecting state-level Republican organizations nationwide.