Voters in Georgia and Wisconsin head to the polls tonight in two closely watched elections that political strategists say could offer early signals about the direction of American politics heading into the 2026 midterm cycle.
In Georgia, Republican Clay Fuller is expected to easily win the special election for the state's 14th Congressional District, the seat formerly held by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The race is primarily about margin — the northwest Georgia district voted for Donald Trump by 37 points in 2024.
In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court race features Democratic-backed candidate Chris Taylor. While last year's election secured a liberal majority on the court, tonight's result in one of the nation's premier swing states will be scrutinized for any unexpected shifts.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats are pointing to the special election performance in Georgia as a measure of enthusiasm among their base. In previous House special elections during Trump's second term, Democratic candidates have improved by 13 to 22 points compared to Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential performance in each district.
Progressives argue that the March 10 preliminary election in Georgia provides reason for optimism. The combined vote share showed Republicans at 59% and Democrats at 39%, a 20-point gap that represents a 17-point net improvement for Democrats compared to Trump's 2024 margin in the district.
In Wisconsin, liberal supporters note that last April's Supreme Court race saw voters in the Driftless Area — a traditionally Democratic blue-collar region that shifted to Trump — deliver an 18-point swing back to the Democratic-aligned candidate. They see tonight's race as a test of whether that momentum holds.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans in Georgia are confident that Fuller will win comfortably in a district that Trump carried by 37 points. While Democrats improved their March performance, the party faced a fractured Republican primary field that has now consolidated behind Fuller.
Conservative strategists note that special elections traditionally favor the out-party in low-turnout contests, and they expect tonight's results to show a return to normal Republican performance in the district. Any Democratic improvement must be measured against the unusual dynamics of a multi-candidate primary.
In Wisconsin, Republicans are focusing on suburban voters in counties like Ozaukee, where Trump reduced his margin to just 10 points in 2024 — the smallest Republican margin since 1964. They argue that continued GOP strength in these swing areas will limit any Democratic gains tonight.
What the Numbers Show
In Georgia's 14th District, Trump won by 37 points in 2024. The March 10 preliminary showed Republicans with 59% combined vote share and Democrats at 39%, a 20-point gap. The Democratic candidate Shawn Harris received the most votes last month, but Fuller now faces no major Republican primary opponent.
In Wisconsin's Ozaukee County, Trump won by just 10 points in 2024 — the smallest margin for a Republican candidate since 1964. In last April's Supreme Court race, the liberal candidate came within 4 points of winning the county.
The Driftless Area in southwest Wisconsin shows dramatic swings: Trump won these counties by 9 points in 2024, but last April's Supreme Court race saw the same counties go for the liberal candidate by 9 points, an 18-point swing from the presidential result.
The Bottom Line
Tonight's elections offer early electoral tests in two battleground states. In Georgia, the question is not who wins but whether Democrats can narrow the margin in a deeply Republican district. In Wisconsin, the focus is on whether suburban voters continue drifting from the GOP and whether rural voters maintain their 2024 Republican alignment.
The results will be parsed for what they suggest about 2026 midterm momentum. The Kornacki Cam will go live when polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET, with full results expected to pour in from both states throughout the evening.