Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won a decisive landslide in November, is facing early-term turbulence with her approval rating now at 47% and disapprovals at 46%, according to a new survey conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.
The polling represents the weakest early-term standing for a Virginia governor in decades. The erosion is particularly sharp among independents, a key bloc that powered her November victory. Just 45% of independents now approve of her performance, while 46% disapprove — a stark shift from the 59% of independents she carried on Election Day, according to exit polls.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans and conservative critics have seized on the polling to argue that Spanberger's governing agenda conflicts with her campaign promises. According to the survey, 45% of voters now say Spanberger's views are "too liberal," compared to 42% who say they are "just about right" and just 7% who view her as "too conservative."
The Republican opposition has been particularly vocal on taxes. Roughly eight in ten Republicans say Spanberger's agenda will drive costs higher, and critics argue the proposed tax increases directly undercut her "Affordable Virginia" campaign message. Opponents note that the proposals could push Virginia's top effective tax rate to roughly 13.8%, potentially higher than California's.
On immigration, Spanberger's decision to end cooperation between state law enforcement and federal immigration authorities has drawn criticism from Republicans who argue the policy undermines public safety and violates commitments to collaborative law enforcement.
Conservatives have also attacked her support for rejoining the regional climate initiative, arguing it could increase energy costs for Virginia families and businesses. Republicans have warned that the policy represents a departure from the pocketbook-focused, business-friendly approach that many voters expected from a self-described centrist.
What the Left Is Saying
Supporters of Spanberger's agenda point to strong Democratic backing for her policy direction. According to the poll, 63% of Democrats believe her policies will improve Virginia's affordability, reflecting enthusiasm among progressive voters for her legislative priorities.
Proponents of the governor's tax proposals, which would create new income brackets and expand taxes on investment income, frame the measures as a "fair share" approach to funding public priorities. Supporters argue that asking wealthy Virginians and investors to contribute more is consistent with the state's economic capacity and will fund essential services.
On gun policy, advocacy groups supporting stronger firearms restrictions have praised Spanberger's support for more than 30 gun control measures advancing through the legislature, including proposed bans and new restrictions on firearms and magazines. These groups argue common-sense gun safety laws were a campaign priority that voters endorsed.
Climate advocates have similarly supported her push to rejoin a regional climate initiative, arguing that Virginia must participate in multi-state efforts to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy infrastructure.
What the Numbers Show
The polling data reveals significant challenges for the new governor. Spanberger's 47% approval and 46% disapproval represent a nearly even split, a notable shift from the strong mandate suggested by her November victory. By comparison, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin maintained a 54% approval rating with just 39% disapproval at a comparable point in his tenure, despite winning Virginia by only two points in the 2021 election.
The independent voter shift is particularly striking. While she captured 59% of independents on Election Day, just 45% now approve and 46% disapprove — a 14-point decline in a key swing constituency.
On the central campaign promise of affordability, voters are skeptical. The poll finds 41% believe her policies will make Virginia less affordable, compared to 31% who say more affordable, while 23% expect no impact. Among independents specifically, 41% say her policies will make the state less affordable versus just 27% who expect improvement.
The policy direction appears to be reinforcing voter concerns. More than 30 gun control measures are advancing through the legislature, and her immigration policy changes represent a clear shift from campaign positioning.
The Bottom Line
The polling presents an early challenge for Spanberger's governing brand. While Democratic supporters remain largely aligned with her agenda, the erosion among independents — the voters who delivered her landslide victory — represents a significant political liability.
Political observers have noted the unusual nature of the early-term division. Larry Sabato described the decline as "stunning" and warned it could become a serious liability if it continues. Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government, noted that while polarization is expected, the degree of early division is unusual for a governor who emphasized a centrist image.
The core challenge may be definitional rather than messaging-related. Spanberger won as a center-leaning pragmatist who promised cost relief and moderation, but a decisive bloc of voters — particularly independents — now believes the product they were sold is not the one being delivered. The coming months will test whether she can recalibrate her governing approach to match campaign expectations or whether the centrist brand that carried her to office has fundamentally shifted.