Former U.S. officials expressed significant concern about the durability of a fragile ceasefire with Iran, with diplomatic sources describing the arrangement as tenuous at best during negotiations that have left key issues unresolved.
Barbara Leaf, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs under President Biden and now a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, said she spoke with several senior Gulf officials who characterized the arrangements as fragile. "One said it was less a cease-fire than it was a fragile truce, but that the prospect of escalation was clearly there," Leaf said. "Another official worried about the fact that this dispute over whether Lebanon was in or out of the agreement was clearly a point of volatility."
What the Right Is Saying
Michael Doran, former senior director for the Middle East on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, offered a more optimistic assessment of the military situation. "The administration faced and the Israelis faced an Iran that was building up a massive stockpile of missiles," Doran said. "And that was going to protect their nuclear program. We can see how serious these weapons are. They have hit some of our most important radar systems in the Middle East. They have wreaked havoc with our allies."
Doran argued that military action has weakened Iran significantly. "We didn't destroy their -- all of their missiles and drones, and they have this muscle that they can use, but they're hurting very, very badly," he said. "You have seen their senior leadership has been destroyed. Some of their repressive apparatus has been destroyed. Their defense industrial base has been set back."
On the question of whether the U.S. is better off, Doran was unequivocal: "Absolutely." He argued that allowing Iran to build up its stockpile would have created a worse situation. "It's not easy to eradicate it. And if we sat back and let them build up a bigger and bigger stockpile, we'd be in a much worse situation than we are now."
Doran acknowledged the uncertainty about Iran's future direction, noting internal divisions between President Pezeshkian's apparent willingness to negotiate and the hardline IRGC: "There's clearly a current of opinion in the statements of President Pezeshkian to go a different way, less support for proxies, some kind of agreement with the United States over the nuclear program. But the guys who are in control of the missiles don't have that point of view."
What the Left Is Saying
Leaf, drawing on her experience in the Biden administration and contacts with Gulf allies, emphasized that Iran has not capitulated despite military losses. "I think they are getting ready to see what they can get at the table, but they clearly believe they have two really profoundly important pieces of leverage," she said. "One, the capacity, still resilient capacity, and will to impose really huge costs on the Gulf in terms of the energy infrastructure and critical infrastructure. But, more importantly, they have a hold on the global economy's throat through the Strait of Hormuz."
The former diplomat expressed alarm at President Trump's proposal for a joint U.S.-Iran venture to manage the Strait of Hormuz. "I was gobsmacked," Leaf said. "I hardly think that was a reassuring proposition to, again, the Gulf countries or to others around the globe who really depend on that to be an open waterway for the free flow of commerce."
Leaf argued that the ultimate test for Iran's regime will not be military, but domestic: "The sad truth is that there has not been regime change as such. The true test that will test the regime is not so much what the U.S. and the Israeli militaries are doing, as brutal a campaign as it's been for the regime, but rather, when the guns fall silent and they have to face their own people and they have to face a shattered economy."
What the Numbers Show
Iran's economy was in crisis before the latest military campaign. The country's currency has collapsed, with the rial effectively worthless against the dollar. Economic data from international monitoring organizations showed Iran's GDP per capita had declined significantly under international sanctions, with inflation reaching triple digits.
Iran's military capabilities, while degraded by recent strikes, remain substantial. Intelligence assessments indicate Iran retains a resilient missile and drone arsenal capable of targeting Gulf energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil consumption, giving Iran significant economic leverage regardless of its military losses.
The IRGC has consolidated control over all elements of Iranian power following the transition in supreme leadership, according to analysis from think tanks tracking Tehran. The new leader is not expected to be less hardline than his predecessor, though his relative lack of experience may create internal dynamics.
The Bottom Line
The ceasefire remains highly uncertain, with both former officials agreeing it will be fragile in the months ahead. Key variables include whether Iran can rebuild its military capacity, how quickly oil revenues from resumed strait transit might flow into government coffers, and whether the internal debate between pragmatists like President Pezeshkian and hardliners in the IRGC resolves in either direction.
The Trump administration's proposal for joint U.S.-Iran management of the Strait of Hormuz faces significant skepticism from Gulf allies who depend on the waterway remaining an open corridor for global commerce. Any arrangement that formalizes Iranian influence over the passage would require substantial diplomatic convincing of regional partners.
The ultimate test will be whether post-conflict negotiations can secure meaningful constraints on Iran's nuclear program and proxy activities, while also preventing Tehran from rebuilding its military through oil revenues. Both Leaf and Doran agreed that the situation's outcome depends heavily on what arrangements can be achieved at the negotiating table, and whether international pressure can maintain any agreement reached.