Oil prices fell sharply and stock markets jumped worldwide after the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire deal that includes reopening the key Strait of Hormuz waterway. President Trump announced the agreement on social media, setting a deadline for the deal to take effect.
The global benchmark oil price initially sank 15% to just under $92 (£67) before climbing back slightly, while US-traded oil dropped to about $96. However, oil prices remain higher than before the conflict started on 28 February, when crude was trading at around $70 a barrel. The cost of energy has jumped as oil and gas supplies from the Middle East have been severely disrupted after Iran threatened to attack ships trying to use the strait in retaliation to US and Israeli airstrikes.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices have expressed cautious optimism about the ceasefire while raising concerns about the terms and long-term implications. Democrats have noted that Trump's willingness to negotiate after threats of military action demonstrates the value of diplomacy over escalation. The agreement comes after weeks of rising energy costs that particularly hurt working families and developing nations.
Some progressive analysts have argued that the ceasefire shows the effectiveness of international pressure on both sides to de-escalate. They have pointed to the economic pain caused by elevated oil prices as a reason why continued conflict would have been unsustainable. Progressive lawmakers have called for the ceasefire to lead to longer-term diplomatic engagement rather than just a temporary pause in hostilities.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative voices have framed the ceasefire as a victory for Trump's firm stance and willingness to use military pressure. Republicans have highlighted that Trump set clear terms and a deadline, demonstrating American resolve. The agreement is seen by conservatives as proof that the administration's 'maximum pressure' approach toward Iran is working.
Conservative commentators have argued that the ceasefire preserves American interests while avoiding a wider war in the Middle East. They note that Trump threatened significant consequences if Iran did not comply, and the agreement shows Tehran understood the stakes. Republicans have also pointed to the ceasefire as a way to prevent energy prices from skyrocketing further, which would have harmed American consumers and the economy.
What the Numbers Show
Global markets posted significant gains following the ceasefire announcement. The S&P 500 index closed up 2.5%, while the Dow and Nasdaq rose 2.8% higher. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 gained 2.5%, France's CAC 40 rose 4.5%, and Germany's Dax climbed 4.7%. Asian markets were even stronger, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 5.4%, South Korea's Kospi jumping 6.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 3%, and Australia's ASX 200 gaining 2.5%.
Oil prices remain substantially elevated despite the ceasefire. Before the conflict began on February 28, oil traded at around $70 a barrel. The global benchmark fell to just under $92 following the deal, still representing roughly a 30% increase from pre-conflict levels. Exxon reported its Middle East oil production dropped 6% in the first quarter compared to 2025. Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial hub, producing about a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, saw export capacity reduced by 17%. Rystad Energy estimates it could take years and more than $25bn to repair the damage to regional energy infrastructure.
The Bottom Line
The two-week ceasefire has provided relief to global markets and temporarily stabilized energy prices, but significant uncertainties remain. Analysts note that attacks in the region continued even as the deal was announced, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said ongoing violence undermines the spirit of the peace process. Market researcher Xavier Smith noted Trump was likely wary of letting energy prices 'skyrocket' by escalating the conflict, which could have created a self-inflicted economic wound.
If the ceasefire holds and more oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, it could provide further relief to markets in the coming weeks. However, analyst Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee said energy production in the Middle East is unlikely to fully resume until there is confidence of a lasting peace deal. The damage to regional energy infrastructure may take months or years to repair, meaning elevated oil prices could persist even if the ceasefire extends beyond two weeks.