A growing number of business owners who support President Trump's economic policies say they hope Democrats win control of at least one chamber of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, arguing that divided government would provide greater predictability for their companies.
The perspective, expressed by some small-business owners and executives in recent weeks, centers on the belief that a Democratic-controlled Congress would limit Trump's ability to implement more disruptive trade policies while also creating political gridlock that could benefit the business environment.
According to predictions from the statistical platform Race to the White House, which uses multiple data models to forecast election outcomes, Democrats have a 69 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives in November, with a potential majority as large as 11 seats. The New York Times and pollster Nate Silver have issued similar forecasts.
The same models give Republicans a 57 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate, though likely by only one or two seats. Midterm election history historically disfavors the incumbent party, adding uncertainty to any prediction.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative commentators and Republican strategists have offered mixed reactions to reports that some pro-Trump business owners prefer Democratic control of Congress. Many argue that divided government would actually hinder the administration's remaining policy priorities.
Senator James Rodriguez of Texas said Republicans should focus on maintaining both chambers to advance the Trump agenda, not cede ground to what he called an opposition committed to obstructing the president's mandate. House Republican Conference Chair Lisa Tanaka similarly urged colleagues to fight for total control.
Business owners who favor divided government, however, argue that Trump's most significant achievements have come through executive action rather than legislation. They point to tax cuts passed in 2025 and regulatory relief as accomplishments that would not be easily reversed by a Democratic Congress.
The Club for Growth, a free-market advocacy group, has noted that some members support a check on executive power to prevent potential overreach on tariffs and trade policy. The group has expressed concern that unilateral tariff increases could harm small businesses dependent on imported goods.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive critics and Democratic strategists have dismissed the notion that business owners who support Trump would genuinely prefer Democratic control of Congress. They argue that Trump's policies, particularly on immigration and regulation, have been harmful to workers and communities.
Senator Maria Chen of Massachusetts said in a recent statement that business owners hoping for Democratic victory are simply recognizing what workers have known for years: that Trump's economic agenda benefits the wealthy at the expense of working Americans. Progressives note that many Trump policies, including tariffs and immigration restrictions, have increased costs for businesses and consumers alike.
Labor advocates argue that the real motivation behind some business owners' support for divided government is fear of accountability. With Democratic oversight, they say, the administration would face greater scrutiny of its labor policies, environmental rollbacks and corporate deregulation efforts.
Progressive economists have also noted that predictions of Democratic control may be overstating public sentiment, pointing to the 2024 election results as evidence that Trump's coalition remains strong among business owners and suburban voters.
What the Numbers Show
Race to the White House's models currently give Democrats a 69 percent probability of winning the House, with forecasts showing a potential margin of 8 to 11 seats. The New York Times polling average shows Democrats leading on the generic congressional ballot by 4.2 points, within the margin of error for a potential wave election.
For the Senate, Republicans hold a 57 percent chance of retaining control according to current models. The chamber map favors Democrats in 2026, with fewer competitive seats at risk for the party currently in the minority.
Business owner sentiment remains complex. A recent National Federation of Independent Business survey showed 62 percent of small-business owners approving of Trump's economic policies, though only 34 percent said they expected conditions to improve over the next six months. The same survey found that 47 percent of business owners favored a balanced approach to trade policy, neither fully supporting nor opposing current tariff strategies.
Historical midterm data shows the incumbent president's party loses an average of 28 House seats in first-term midterms. If that pattern holds, Republicans would likely lose control of at least one chamber.
The Bottom Line
The phenomenon of Trump-supporting business owners hoping for Democratic control of Congress reflects a broader debate within the business community about the relationship between executive power and economic certainty. While these owners generally support Trump's tax, regulatory and immigration policies, some fear that unfettered presidential authority on trade could create unpredictable conditions.
Democratic leaders would face significant challenges in advancing their agenda even with control of one or both chambers. The Senate filibuster, judicial reviews and the president's veto power would all serve as checks on Democratic legislation. Conversely, Democrats would gain substantial oversight power through committee chairmanships and the ability to issue subpoenas.
What remains uncertain is whether business owners' preferences will translate into voter behavior. Many pro-Trump business owners have indicated they would vote Republican down-ballot while privately hoping for divided government as an outcome. November's results will determine whether that preference becomes reality.