Minnesota's 2026 Senate race is taking shape as Republicans signal they have a preferred opponent in the Democratic primary, with House Majority Whip Tom Emmer arguing that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would be easier to defeat than Rep. Angie Craig.
The race opened in February when Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., announced she would not seek reelection, setting off a four-way Democratic primary. Craig and Flanagan have emerged as the clear frontrunners, with two other candidates — Billy Nord and Melisa López Franzen — also in the running.
In an interview with local media, Emmer said he believes voters will be forced to choose between a Republican and what he called the "radical Left" that has taken over the Democratic Party.
"You've got the radical Left that is really upending the party. It's that crazy Marxist anarchist group that is in Minneapolis, especially with a primary," Emmer said. "You've got Angie Craig, who will have all the money. But she knows that her numbers are in the tank against this radical, wild, wild-eyed Peggy Flanagan, the current lieutenant governor. So, guess who shows up? All the crazies from Minneapolis."
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans are betting that Flanagan's positions and record will be liabilities in a general election. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already begun defining her as out of step with mainstream Minnesota voters.
"She, too, supports Medicare for All, wants to 're-imagine' policing and attended anti-ICE protests where she called on people to 'put their bodies on the line' to defend illegal immigrants from ICE," the NRSC said in a press release.
NRSC Chairman Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., criticized the Walz-Flanagan administration directly: "From allowing billions of dollars in fraud to vilifying law enforcement, the Walz-Flanagan administration has failed Minnesotans."
Republicans point to recent revelations of up to $9 billion in fraud through Minnesota government benefit programs during the Walz-Flanagan administration as a major campaign issue. The fraud involved schemes where applicants exaggerated services at daycare centers and health clinics while receiving government funding.
Emmer said Republicans will run a competitive race regardless of which Democrat emerges from the primary. "Peggy Flanagan is likely going to be their candidate, and that is good for us," he said.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders and progressive allies are defending Flanagan as a mainstream candidate with proven statewide appeal. The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party chair told the Minnesota Star Tribune that voters will focus on bread-and-butter issues, not Republican attacks.
"I don't think there's any way that this issue isn't still being talked about in November. And anybody that was a party to it, whether you're a legislator or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, if she's the nominee, is going to have to answer questions around it," DFL Chair Mike Erlandson said of the fraud controversy, while suggesting voters will ultimately weigh other factors.
Flanagan's campaign pushed back on Republican attempts to define her as too extreme. Campaign Alexandra Fetissoff pointed to Minnesota's track record of voting for Democrats in statewide races.
"Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in over 20 years — with Trump in the White House and the chaos ICE inflicted on Minnesotans, this is not going to be Craig's or the GOP's year," Fetissoff said. "Peggy Flanagan is the only candidate in this race who has won statewide, the only candidate not taking corporate money and the only candidate that hasn't enabled Trump's ICE."
Progressive supporters note Flanagan has served as lieutenant governor for seven years alongside Gov. Tim Walz and has won multiple statewide elections. They argue her experience makes her the stronger general election candidate despite Republican attacks.
What the Numbers Show
The Democratic primary has two clear frontrunners with different financial profiles. According to FEC records, Rep. Angie Craig has $4.8 million in cash on hand as a four-term congresswoman. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has $1.1 million in cash on hand.
Billy Nord, an anti-establishment activist, has not reported any contributions to the FEC. Melisa López Franzen, a former Minnesota Senate minority leader, dropped out of the race in May.
Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office in over 20 years, last doing so in 2004. The state has sent Democrats to the Senate consistently during this period.
The $9 billion in fraud through government benefit programs occurred during the Walz-Flanagan administration and has become a central Republican talking point heading into the 2026 election.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 Minnesota Senate race will test whether Republicans can capitalize on cultural and economic issues to break the state's two-decade streak of voting for Democratic statewide candidates. Republicans believe Flanagan's progressive positions and the fraud scandal will make her vulnerable, while Democrats argue her statewide wins and opposition to Trump administration policies give them the advantage. The primary will take place in August, with the general election in November.