Steve Hilton, a former adviser in the Trump administration and California native, has laid out his case for why he believes Republicans can turn the traditionally blue state red in upcoming elections.
The strategy, according to Hilton, centers on mobilizing disaffected voters who have grown frustrated with California's high cost of living, housing affordability crisis, and governance under Democratic leadership.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and progressive organizations in California have dismissed Republican efforts to make inroads in the state as unrealistic, pointing to the party's consistent electoral success in statewide races.
California Democratic Party leaders have argued that Republican overtures to the state overlook fundamental policy differences on issues like climate action, workers' rights and social programs. They point to voter registration totals showing Democrats maintain a significant advantage over Republicans in the state.
Progressive commentators have also noted that previous Republican candidates have underperformed in California despite significant investment, suggesting the state's demographic and political trends remain unfavorable for the GOP.
What the Right Is Saying
Hilton and other California Republicans argue that the state's changing political landscape presents an opening for conservative candidates. They point to shifting suburban voter preferences and economic concerns that they say align with Republican messaging.
Conservative analysts argue that high housing costs and homelessness have created a backlash against Democratic governance that can be exploited. They note that Silicon Valley voters, traditionally Democratic, have shown openness to Republican economic messaging.
Republicans also point to successful school board and local elections in traditionally Democratic areas as evidence of a shifting political environment. They argue that grassroots organizing at the local level can build toward statewide success.
What the Numbers Show
California has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger won re-election as governor. Democrats have maintained consistent majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1 in California, though that gap has narrowed slightly in recent years. Independent voters now represent the largest voting bloc in the state.
Recent polling shows Republicans face significant challenges in statewide races, though voter enthusiasm and issue priorities have fluctuated. Economic concerns rank high among issues where Republicans believe they can make inroads.
The Bottom Line
Whether Steve Hilton's strategy gains traction will depend on whether Republicans can overcome California's structural political disadvantages. The state's size, diverse electorate and Democratic institutional strength have historically proven formidable barriers.
What to watch: Local election results in 2026 and 2027 will provide early indicators of whether Republican messaging on economic issues resonates with California voters. The state's gubernatorial race in 2026 will also test whether any GOP momentum has developed.
The challenge for Republicans remains substantial, but some strategists argue that changing voter priorities on economic issues could create opportunities in a state that has grown increasingly expensive.