Virginia voters will decide Tuesday whether to ratify an unusual mid-decade redrawing of U.S. House districts that could boost Democrats' chances of flipping control of the closely divided chamber, as the state becomes the latest front in a national redistricting battle.
A proposed constitutional amendment backed by Democratic officials would bypass the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to allow use of new congressional districts approved by state lawmakers in this year's midterm elections. The referendum tests voters' willingness to accept districts drawn for political advantage — coming just six years after Virginia voters approved an amendment meant to diminish such partisan gamesmanship by shifting redistricting away from the legislature.
Even if Democrats are successful Tuesday, the public vote may not be the final word. The state Supreme Court is considering whether the redistricting plan is legal in a case that could render the referendum results meaningless.
What the Left Is Saying
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters at the Capitol that a vote to approve the redraw "will serve as a check and balance on this out-of-control Trump administration." He said he expected the election to be close.
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger said during an online rally last week that the Virginia redistricting plan is "pushing back against what other states have done in trying to stack the deck for Donald Trump in those congressional elections."
Leaders of both major parties see Tuesday's vote as crucial to their chances to have a House majority in the fall. Democrats hope to offset Republican gains made through mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, where they believe Republicans could win up to nine additional House seats.
Ads for the "yes to redistricting" campaign featuring former President Barack Obama have flooded the airwaves. The campaign argues the plan is necessary to counterbalance Republican efforts to redraw congressional maps ahead of this year's midterms.
What the Right Is Saying
Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, rallied with opponents of the measure Monday night, calling the redistricting plan "dishonest" and "brazenly deceptive."
Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeff Ryer said Democrats "were all against gerrymandering before they were for it," citing past statements from Obama and Spanberger criticizing the practice before they supported this year's mid-decade redistricting effort.
Republicans have filed multiple legal challenges against the effort. A Tazewell County judge ruled that the redistricting push was illegal, saying lawmakers failed to follow their own rules for adding the redistricting amendment to a special session. The judge ruled that their initial vote failed to occur before the public began casting ballots in last year's general election and thus didn't count toward the two-step process required for constitutional amendments. He also ruled that the state failed to publish the amendment three months before that election, as required by law.
The back-and-forth battle over congressional districts is expected to continue in Florida, where the Republican-led legislature is scheduled to convene April 28 for a special session that could result in a more favorable map for Republicans.
What the Numbers Show
Currently, Democrats hold six of the 11 U.S. House seats under districts that were imposed by the state Supreme Court in 2021 after a bipartisan commission failed to agree on a map based on the latest census data.
The new plan could help Democrats win as many as 10 seats. Five are anchored in Democratic-heavy northern Virginia, including one district shaped like a lobster that stretches into Republican-leaning rural areas.
Popular revisions to four other districts across Richmond, southern Virginia and Hampton Roads dilute the voting power of conservative blocs in those areas. A reshaped district in parts of western Virginia lumps together three Democratic-leaning college towns to offset other Republican voters.
So far, Republicans believe they can win up to nine more House seats in newly redrawn districts in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Democrats think they can win up to five more seats in California, where voters approved a mid-decade redistricting effort last November, and one more seat under new court-imposed districts in Utah.
Virginia lawmakers endorsed a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting last fall, then passed it again in January as part of a two-step process that requires an intervening election for an amendment to be placed on the ballot. In February, they passed a new U.S. House map to take effect pending the outcome of Tuesday's referendum.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's vote represents a pivotal moment in the national battle over congressional redistricting, with both parties viewing Virginia as crucial to their hopes of controlling the House in November. If voters approve the amendment, it would mark only the second time a state has ratified mid-decade redistricting, following California's vote last fall.
However, the referendum's outcome may ultimately be determined by the state Supreme Court. If the court agrees with the lower court judge who ruled the redistricting effort illegal, Tuesday's results could be rendered moot regardless of how voters vote.
Both parties are likely to continue fighting redistricting battles in statehouses nationwide. Florida's Republican-led legislature is scheduled to convene April 28 for a special session that could produce another round of map changes, ensuring the legal and political fights over district lines will extend well past Tuesday's vote.