For the first time in years, incomes are rising faster than rent increases nationwide, according to Zillow. The typical asking rent was $1,910 in March, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier — the slowest annual pace since 2020, the online real estate marketplace said. With income growth now outpacing rent hikes, Zillow estimates the typical household has about $193 more per month, or roughly $2,300 a year.

The rental market cooldown follows a surge in housing construction, particularly in Texas and Florida, which have outpaced all other states in recent years. The softer market is also pushing landlords to offer concessions, with nearly 40 percent of rental listings on Zillow offering discounts or waived fees in March, tying 2025 for the highest share on record for the month.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservatives and free-market economists have argued that the solution to high housing costs is more supply, and the Zillow data demonstrates that market forces are working when governments allow construction to proceed. The significant concessions landlords are offering — 69 percent of listings in Denver, 66 percent in Salt Lake City, 65 percent in Austin — reflect a market responding to increased supply.

Republican policymakers have pointed to states like Texas and Florida as examples of how pro-growth housing policies can moderate costs. The fact that rents are declining in major metros like Austin, Tampa, and Denver while incomes grow suggests that reducing regulatory barriers to construction is effective. Some conservative analysts argue this demonstrates that the best housing policy is allowing the private market to build more units.

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive advocates and Democratic policymakers have long called for increased investment in affordable housing construction as a solution to rising rents. The Zillow data validates that approach, with housing experts pointing to the supply surge in Sun Belt states as a key driver of moderating prices. However, tenant advocates note that affordability remains worse than pre-pandemic levels, with households spending 26.5 percent of income on rent compared to the pre-pandemic 25.8 percent.

Progressive economists have argued that rent stabilization policies and tenant protections are also necessary to ensure renters can stay in their homes. While the current market shift offers relief, they emphasize that the 36 percent rent increase since the pandemic's start cannot be undone quickly. Housing advocates have called for continued federal and state investment in affordable housing development to build on recent gains.

What the Numbers Show

The typical asking rent was $1,910 in March, up just 1.8 percent year-over-year — the slowest pace since 2020. The typical household now has approximately $193 more per month after accounting for rent and income changes, or about $2,300 annually. Austin renters have seen the largest gains at roughly $3,180 per year in additional flexibility, followed by Tampa at $3,110.

Rents have declined year-over-year in 10 of the 50 largest metros: Austin (-2.3%), Tampa (-1.6%), San Antonio (-1.6%), Denver (-1.2%), Houston (-0.9%), Phoenix (-0.8%), Salt Lake City (-0.6%), Las Vegas (-0.4%), Nashville (-0.2%), and Dallas (-0.1%). Meanwhile, San Francisco (+6.4%), Virginia Beach (+6.0%), and Chicago (+5.6%) continue to see steep increases.

The share of income going to rent eased to 26.5 percent in March, still slightly above the pre-pandemic level of 25.8 percent. Since the start of the pandemic, rents have climbed 36 percent nationwide, with single-family rents rising 45 percent. Nearly 40 percent of March listings offered concessions, the highest share on record for the month.

The Bottom Line

The shift marks a notable turning point after years of rent outpacing income growth, giving renters more flexibility than they have had in recent memory. However, affordability remains worse than pre-pandemic levels, and renters in many major metros continue to face rising costs. The coming months will test whether this trend holds as the spring rental season unfolds, and whether supply gains in Sun Belt markets spread to other regions still experiencing steep rent increases.