Three congressional candidates placed bets on the outcome of their own elections through the prediction market Kalshi, according to disciplinary documents released by the platform on Wednesday. The company fined and suspended all three men from its platform for five years.

Mark Moran, an independent candidate running in Virginia's U.S. Senate race, placed a $100 bet on himself to win, according to posts on social media he confirmed. He refused to reach a settlement agreement with Kalshi and was fined the most at more than $6,200.

Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran in a Texas Republican primary for a U.S. House seat, and Matt Klein, a Democratic state senator running for a U.S. House seat in Minnesota, both placed bets of less than $100 related to their own candidacies. Both reached agreements with the company, facing penalties of over $780 and over $530 respectively.

The punishments follow bipartisan scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have faced calls for stricter regulation from members of Congress. In March, two U.S. senators announced legislation targeting these platforms.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative critics have also called for greater oversight of prediction markets, though some argue the current regulatory framework is sufficient. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, is chaired by Michael Selig, who is considered friendly to the industry.

Moran, the independent Senate candidate from Virginia, far from denying the allegations, told The Associated Press he placed the bet intending to draw attention to what he called the unjust sway that platforms like Kalshi have on elections. He said he'd met with the company and asked for his name to appear on its website.

Moran said he was fined more than the other candidates because he refused to sign a settlement that would have required him to post a statement on X. He characterized the fine as the cost of getting attention. "When I piss people off, when I upset people, and when I captivate their attention, that's when they have to start listening," he said.

Some conservative commentators have noted that the three candidates represent different political perspectives — an independent, a Republican primary loser, and a Democratic state senator — suggesting the issue crosses partisan lines.

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive Democrats and reform advocates say the punishments do not go far enough to deter political candidates from exploiting prediction markets. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin, a California Democrat, criticized the penalties on social media, writing: "That's not a punishment. That's a parking ticket."

Klein himself acknowledged the bet was a mistake. In a statement on X, he said he placed the $50 wager in October out of curiosity about how prediction markets worked. "This was a mistake and I apologize," he wrote, adding that the experience made clear that these markets need more regulation.

Klein is a cosponsor of legislation working its way through the Minnesota Legislature to ban most wagering on predictive markets, including election outcomes. In an interview, he said there was no inconsistency between his $50 bet on himself to win his primary and his sponsorship of the state bill. He said he signed onto the legislation well before learning his bet violated Kalshi's rules.

Some progressive critics argue that even small bets by candidates create potential for insider trading concerns, as candidates have access to nonpublic information about their own campaigns that could influence odds on prediction markets.

What the Numbers Show

All three candidates were suspended from Kalshi for five years, a standard penalty the platform applies to violations of its rules against candidates trading on their own campaigns.

The fines ranged significantly based on whether the candidate reached a settlement agreement. Moran, who refused to settle, was fined more than $6,200. Klein and Enriquez, who reached agreements, faced penalties of over $530 and over $780 respectively.

The amounts involved were relatively small — all under $100 — in contrast to larger wagers that have drawn scrutiny this year. In one notable case, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit in January on a wager that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon be out of office.

The agreements are with Kalshi itself, not with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets at the federal level.

Enriquez lost his Texas Republican primary for a U.S. House seat in early March, receiving less than 2% of the vote.

The Bottom Line

The case highlights growing bipartisan concern about prediction markets and their role in political outcomes. Despite the relatively small amounts wagered by the three candidates, the incidents have fueled calls for stricter federal regulation.

Kalshi and Polymarket both announced new rules in March — including prohibiting political candidates from trading on their own campaigns — following the introduction of Senate legislation targeting prediction markets.

Klein's support for Minnesota legislation to ban election betting, even after placing a bet himself, illustrates the complexity of the issue for politicians seeking to regulate an industry some have participated in. The Minnesota bill is still working its way through the state legislature.

What to watch: Whether federal legislation emerges from the Senate, how the CFTC exercises its regulatory authority, and whether additional candidates or sitting politicians are found to have wagered on prediction markets.