Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday that the U.S. military taking further action against Iran is "more probable than not," as tensions remain elevated in the Persian Gulf following a fragile ceasefire agreement.
Esper, who led the Pentagon during President Trump's first administration, made the assessment during an interview with The Hill. "I think it's more probable than not," he said when asked whether additional U.S. military involvement lies ahead. "It could be anything happens. Maybe the president gets impatient and wants to go after something, wants to kind of shake them up a little bit or force [Iran] to concede some. Or maybe they step over the line with regard to the attacks they inflict."
The comments came as Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that "Operation Epic Fury," the initial U.S. military operation against Iran, has concluded. The Trump administration is now transitioning to a new mission called "Project Freedom," focused on escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative defense hawks have largely supported the administration's assertive posture toward Iran. Esper's assessment aligns with longstanding Republican arguments that containing Iranian nuclear ambitions and regional influence requires a credible military threat.
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton and other administration allies have praised "Operation Epic Fury" as demonstrating American resolve after years of perceived restraint under previous administrations. Conservative commentators argue that protecting vital shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil trade flows—justifies continued U.S. naval presence and potential defensive operations.
Esper noted that transitioning from offensive to defensive postures is "not unusual" in military operations, drawing parallels to the Gulf War transition from Desert Shield to Desert Storm. He emphasized that the administration maintains flexibility while signaling resolve to Tehran.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive critics of escalating tensions with Iran have raised concerns about the trajectory of U.S. policy in the region. Groups including Win Without War and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft have argued that military posturing risks pushing the two nations back toward open conflict after years of indirect confrontation through proxies.
Democratic lawmakers on the Foreign Affairs Committee have called for increased oversight of administration actions in the Gulf, arguing that any new offensive operations would require Congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution. Representatives have noted that while the April 7 ceasefire provided a diplomatic opening, sustained engagement with Tehran through back-channel negotiations remains preferable to continued military escalation.
What the Numbers Show
Since the April 7 ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, tensions have continued unabated along critical shipping routes: - Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reported Tuesday that Iranian forces have fired upon commercial vessels nine times since the truce began.
- Iranian forces have seized two container ships during the same period.
- Iran has attacked U.S. military forces more than 10 times since the April ceasefire.
- On Monday, Iranian forces opened fire on U.S. warships; CENTCOM leader Adm. Brad Cooper confirmed the U.S. military responded by destroying six Iranian small boats. The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through its waters annually.
The Bottom Line
The situation in the Persian Gulf remains volatile despite the April ceasefire agreement. Esper's assessment that further U.S. military action is "more probable than not" reflects the difficulty both sides face in de-escalating without appearing to concede ground. Rubio has distinguished between completed operations and the ongoing Project Freedom mission, suggesting the administration seeks a sustainable approach rather than indefinite combat posture. However, repeated Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. forces test that strategy daily. Congressional oversight of Gulf operations is expected to intensify, particularly regarding the legal justification for escort missions and any potential offensive actions beyond self-defense. The administration has notified Congress of Operation Epic Fury but details of Project Freedom's parameters remain limited.