Nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe prices will be higher than they are today a year from now, according to a new poll that captures persistent public anxiety over inflation despite recent efforts by the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration to address economic pressures.
The survey from The Economist/YouGov, conducted May 1-4 among 1,573 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, found that 59 percent of respondents expect prices to be "higher" in 12 months. Fifteen percent said they anticipate prices will remain "about the same," while 13 percent predicted lower prices and another 13 percent said they were "not sure."
The findings come as inflation data from the Commerce Department showed the personal consumption expenditures price index climbed to 3.5 percent annually in March, up from 2.8 percent in February. The acceleration coincided with increased geopolitical tensions involving U.S. operations against Iran and subsequent disruptions affecting global oil shipping routes.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative economists and Republican officials have largely attributed recent inflation pressures to international instability, specifically pointing to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and its effect on global energy markets. They argue that external geopolitical shocks rather than domestic policy decisions are the primary driver of current price increases.
The Trump administration has highlighted its efforts to expand domestic energy production as a counterweight to supply disruptions abroad. Officials have pointed to increased drilling permits on federal lands and streamlined approval processes for refinery capacity expansion as evidence of a proactive approach to stabilizing fuel costs.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-Ark.) has argued that the private sector, not government intervention, offers the best path to price relief. "When we remove regulatory barriers and let American energy producers operate at full capacity, consumers benefit," Hill said in recent committee remarks. Conservative commentators have similarly emphasized supply-side solutions over demand management or price controls.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive economists and Democratic lawmakers have pointed to corporate profit margins as a key driver of persistent price pressures. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has argued that large corporations have used supply chain disruptions as cover to maintain elevated pricing, keeping inflation elevated even as input costs stabilized for many industries.
Consumer advocacy groups aligned with progressive causes have called for stronger antitrust enforcement and potential price-gouging legislation at the federal level. Organizations such as Public Citizen have argued that without intervention, consumers will continue to face higher costs while corporate earnings remain near historic highs relative to revenue.
Some economists in Democratic circles have also emphasized wage stagnation concerns, noting that even when inflation moderates, workers whose pay has not kept pace with price increases effectively experience a reduction in purchasing power. The Economic Policy Institute has published research arguing that labor market policies should account for distributional impacts of inflation on working-class households.
What the Numbers Show
The Economist/YouGov poll results showing 59 percent expecting higher prices represent a notable level of consumer pessimism about the inflation trajectory. Historical polling data from similar surveys indicates public expectations tend to be more volatile than actual inflation trends, often overshooting or undershooting realized price changes by significant margins.
Current gasoline prices illustrate the tangible impact on household budgets. AAA data shows the national average for regular gasoline at approximately $4.48 per gallon as of the most recent survey date, up from roughly $3.17 a year earlier. Regional disparities are pronounced: California averages $6.13 per gallon, while Washington and Oregon both exceed $5.00 per gallon.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil markets, with major shipping firms including Hapag-Lloyd AG indicating that transits through the waterway remain suspended following security concerns related to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Shipping industry analysts estimate that approximately 20 percent of global oil trade flows through the strait under normal conditions.
The March PCE inflation reading of 3.5 percent marked a reversal from the downward trend observed throughout much of 2024 and early 2025, when the index had approached the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. Fed officials have indicated they remain data-dependent in their policy deliberations, with futures markets currently pricing in a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in the near term.
The Bottom Line
Consumer expectations for continued price increases present both a challenge and a self-fulfilling dynamic for economic policymakers. When households anticipate higher future prices, they may accelerate purchases of durable goods, which can itself contribute to demand-side inflationary pressure.
The Federal Reserve faces a complex environment where strong employment figures sit alongside elevated inflation readings and geopolitical uncertainty affecting energy markets. The central bank's next policy meetings will be closely watched for signals about their response to the recent uptick in price growth.
For consumers, the near-term outlook suggests continued pressure on household budgets, particularly for transportation and energy costs. Economists note that while expectations surveys capture sentiment rather than predictions, they can influence wage negotiations and business pricing decisions, creating feedback loops between what people expect and what ultimately occurs.
What happens next will depend largely on developments in international markets and whether current geopolitical tensions ease or escalate. Americans should expect ongoing volatility in energy prices as these factors evolve.