Campaign staffers are making thousands of dollars by betting on their own candidates using prediction markets, according to interviews with multiple operatives who spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity. The staffers describe a straightforward method: using non-public polling data to place bets before results go public, then selling contracts at higher prices once polls are released and market odds shift in their candidate's favor.

Prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt allow users to trade event contracts based on the probability of future outcomes, including election results. These platforms have grown into billion-dollar exchanges where users bet weekly on everything from sports to political races. The practice has raised questions about insider trading in an industry with limited regulation.

What the Left Is Saying

Democratic lawmakers and ethics advocates say the practice raises serious concerns about conflicts of interest and market integrity. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., banned prediction markets from his campaign after concluding that using insider information to bet was unethical. "When people are in positions of public trust and they use insider information to make insider bets, that's completely unethical," said Jeff Phaneuf, Moulton's campaign manager. The campaign formalized the ban by adding it to their employee handbook.

Former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson said the commission lacks the expertise to police election-related insider trading cases. "I don't believe that the CFTC has developed experience and expertise in policing election positions," Johnson told NPR. She called on Congress to provide clearer direction on regulating political event contracts, questioning whether the agency has adequate staffing for enforcement.

Senate Democrats have pushed for broader restrictions. The Senate unanimously voted to prohibit Senators and their staff from trading on these markets, though the rule does not extend to campaign operatives who are not federal employees.

What the Right Is Saying

Republican lawmakers and free-market advocates argue that prediction markets provide valuable public information about electoral outcomes and should not be over-regulated. Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., called the Senate rule change a "good first step" but said Congress should go further to prohibit all federal officials and government employees from using insider information on prediction market contracts.

CFTC Board Member Michael Selig has defended prediction markets and led legal efforts against states suing these platforms. At an April House Agriculture Committee hearing, Selig emphasized the importance of protecting market integrity while supporting the industry's growth. "Nothing is more important than protecting market integrity," he said.

Some conservative commentators have argued that campaign operatives who use publicly available polling data are not engaged in traditional insider trading because polls represent legitimate competitive intelligence rather than confidential information obtained through employment. They contend that betting on one's own candidate reflects confidence in their employer's work rather than illicit information asymmetry.

What the Numbers Show

Kalshi hosts billions of dollars in legal election and political bets, according to NPR's reporting. The platform has banned and fined several political candidates for betting on themselves in recent weeks. In February, Kalshi revealed insider trading cases against an editor for YouTube creator MrBeast and a candidate in the California governor's race.

In April, NPR analyzed data showing a Polymarket trader made approximately $300,000 correctly betting on President Biden's last-minute pardons. In March, NPR reported that a Polymarket trader bet $553,000 about Iran just before an Israeli strike killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Jeff Le Riche, who spent 20 years as a trial lawyer at the CFTC focused on market manipulation, said campaign betting potentially checks boxes for an insider trading investigation: breach of confidentiality duty, use of non-public material information in a bet, and understanding that polling data was internal information. "It's illegal or a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act if you have material, non-public information and you have a duty not to use that," Le Riche said.

Bipartisan legislation has been introduced seeking to ban or limit political insider betting, but none have advanced toward becoming law.

The Bottom Line

The practice highlights a regulatory gap as prediction markets grow in popularity. Campaign staffers can legally place bets using information unavailable to the public, though legal experts say this may violate the Commodity Exchange Act if it involves material non-public information with a breach of confidentiality duty.

The Senate has moved to restrict its own members and staff from trading on these platforms, but campaign operatives remain unregulated. The CFTC, which oversees prediction markets, acknowledges it lacks experience in policing election positions. Without clearer congressional action or enforcement precedent, experts expect the current "Wild West" environment to continue until a major test case forces clarification of the rules.