With hundreds of vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf and costs piling up, shipping companies are being whipsawed by uncertainty over how and when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen more than two months into the Iran war. On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," a U.S.-led effort to guide ships through the strait. Two ships made the transit, but by Tuesday Trump abruptly paused the effort to allow time for negotiations to end the conflict.

Meanwhile, risks for vessels and crew remain elevated. A CMA CGM Group cargo container ship was damaged when it came under attack while attempting to transit the strait, the French shipping company confirmed Wednesday. Concerns about Iranian speedboats and drones have led major ship owners and operators to deem the strait too dangerous for normal operations.

Before the Iran war, 100 to 135 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, according to research firm Lloyd's List Intelligence. That traffic has slowed to a trickle as Iran requires vessels to go through a vetting process run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to receive safe passage. The process demands ships follow a route near Iran's coast, submit information on crew and cargo, and in some cases pay a fee. However, paying the IRGC risks running afoul of sanctions from the United States and European Union, which have designated it a terrorist organization.

Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday there are more than 1,550 vessels with approximately 22,500 mariners stranded inside the Persian Gulf. To pressure Iran, the U.S. Navy is blockading Iran's ports and enforcing that blockade outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive lawmakers and maritime labor advocates say the situation demands urgent action to protect thousands of stranded workers and prevent economic harm to consumers. Senator Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., a former Navy helicopter pilot, has called for Congress to examine whether the administration has a coherent plan to ensure mariners' safety and bring resolution to the standoff without prolonged escalation.

"We have real human beings trapped on these ships with families waiting for them at home," Duckworth said in recent remarks. "The humanitarian dimension of this crisis cannot be an afterthought."

Maritime unions including the Seafarers International Union have urged government officials to prioritize getting workers off vessels safely, noting that prolonged confinement creates mental health concerns and strains supplies aboard stranded ships.

Consumer advocates warn that extended disruptions could drive up prices for goods ranging from electronics to household items. The Economic Policy Institute has noted that supply chain bottlenecks in the region tend to disproportionately affect lower-income households who spend a larger share of income on imported goods.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative leaders have largely supported the administration's approach, praising Trump for pausing Operation Freedom to pursue diplomatic channels while maintaining economic pressure on Iran. Representative Mike Rogers, R-Ala., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, called the pause "a strategic decision that signals strength rather than weakness."

"The president is keeping all options open while giving diplomacy a real chance," Rogers said in a statement. "Iran should understand that continued aggression only deepens their isolation and economic pain."

Senator Tom Cotton, R-Ark., argued that the shipping disruption actually serves U.S. interests by intensifying pressure on Tehran. "Every day Iran cannot export oil is a day they grow weaker," Cotton wrote on social media. "The strait will reopen when Iran comes to the table with realistic proposals."

Defense hawks have also emphasized that allowing normal transit without addressing Iranian threats would undermine broader U.S. deterrence in the region. They argue that patience and sustained pressure are more effective than rushing to normalize shipping lanes while hostilities continue.

What the Numbers Show

The financial toll on shipping companies has been substantial. Hapag-Lloyd AG, one of the world's largest container shipping firms, estimates the Hormuz situation is costing it $60 million per week in additional expenses, primarily from skyrocketing fuel prices and insurance premiums. The company has four ships stranded in the Persian Gulf and has had to suspend some transport services while finding alternate routes.

War risk insurance costs have surged dramatically. Ed Anderson, professor of supply chain and operations management at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, said coverage for vessels in the region has jumped from less than 1% of cargo value to between 3% and 10% during the conflict. Despite higher premiums, most shippers have determined crossing remains too dangerous.

The scale of disruption is significant. Before hostilities began, an average of roughly 115 vessels transited Hormuz daily, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data. That volume has dropped to a fraction as companies await clearer conditions for safe passage.

Oil markets have reacted to the uncertainty. While prices spiked early in the crisis, analysts at Verisk Maplecroft note that energy markets remain volatile and are unlikely to return quickly to pre-crisis assumptions without concrete evidence that disruptions will not re-escalate.

The Bottom Line

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic as diplomatic negotiations continue between the United States and Iran. Shipping companies face mounting costs from insurance, fuel surcharges, and delayed deliveries, while more than 22,000 mariners remain aboard vessels unable to complete their voyages.

Even if a ceasefire agreement is reached in coming weeks, experts caution that shipping will not return to normal immediately. Razat Gaurav, CEO of supply chain management company Kinaxis, said ocean shipping typically takes "weeks or months" to normalize due to lead times and contractual constraints. He predicted shipments of liquid natural gas and sulfur, where the Middle East is a major supplier, would move more quickly as backlogs clear.

A Wednesday meeting between Iranian and Chinese diplomats emphasized de-escalation, but analysts say tanker traffic and energy flows over the coming weeks will matter more than diplomatic language in assessing whether Beijing can translate influence with Tehran into practical stability. Shippers, insurers, and carriers are expected to remain cautious until there is clearer evidence that Hormuz disruptions will not re-escalate.