Tuesday's primary elections in Nebraska will determine the matchups for November battleground races that could shape control of Congress, with Democrats targeting a competitive House seat and Republicans working to protect a Senate seat in a red state.
The most closely watched contest is the Democratic primary in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, centered around Omaha. The winner will face Republican Brinker Harding, who ran unopposed for his party's nomination after clearing the primary field to replace retiring Rep. Don Bacon. The district has long been competitive, but Bacon's decision not to seek re-election has given Democrats renewed optimism about flipping it.
The Democratic primary between state Sen. John Cavanaugh and political organizer Denise Powell has become "officially ugly," according to Barry Rubin, a nonpartisan political operative in Nebraska who once served as executive director of the state's Democratic Party. The two campaigns and allied outside groups have spent over $5 million on advertising, per tracking firm AdImpact.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans are watching the Democratic primary with interest. The race could determine whether Democrats nominate a candidate damaged by weeks of intraparty attacks or one who may face scrutiny for his legislative voting record.
Harding, meanwhile, has consolidated Republican support after running unopposed in the primary. He has been endorsed by Bacon and both of Nebraska's GOP senators. His campaign is expected to focus on national Republican messaging heading into the general election.
The district's political dynamics favor a competitive race: President Donald Trump lost the 2nd District by 5 points in 2024, while Bacon won re-election by 2 points. That split-ticket voting pattern has made both parties view the seat as winnable.
On the Senate side, Republicans expect to be in a strong position in November. Nebraska went for Trump by 20 points in 2024. The Democratic primary between Cindy Burbank and William Forbes will determine whether independent Dan Osborn faces GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts alone or with a divided opposition.
What the Left Is Saying
Cavanaugh's campaign has focused on his record in the state Legislature, where he represents a key vote in the Democratic minority despite the formally nonpartisan chamber. He has argued that the attacks against him amount to "MAGA Republican talking points" being amplified by fellow Democrats.
When I knock on doors to meet voters, everyone knows who I am immediately, Cavanaugh told NBC News, suggesting the ad campaigns have boosted his name recognition across the Omaha area. He noted that it's fair to question why groups based in Washington are spending so much money to elect Powell, leading some voters to wonder who is spending this money and why.
Cavanaugh has been endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, the state's AFL-CIO, and nearly a dozen other local unions. His allies have run television ads featuring fellow Democratic state senators telling voters that Nebraska Democrats will pick up additional seats in the Legislature, securing what activists call the "blue dot" electoral vote.
Powell's campaign has centered on Cavanaugh's decision to leave his legislative seat mid-term to run for Congress. She and her supporters argue that if he wins in November, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint a hard-line Republican to replace him, cementing a GOP supermajority capable of advancing priorities like restricting abortion rights and changing Nebraska's Electoral College system to winner-take-all.
This one electoral seat may be the thing that gets us across the finish line in 2028, Powell told NBC News, noting that because redistricting has become an issue in this primary, voters are paying more attention. She dismissed attacks against her as a distraction from the biggest issue right now, which is the blue dot.
Powell has been endorsed by EMILY's List, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and Elect Democratic Women.
What the Numbers Show
The 2nd District race represents one of three House seats Republicans won in 2024 that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in the presidential election, making it a top Democratic target this cycle.
AdImpact data shows over $5 million has been spent on advertising in the Democratic primary alone, a significant sum for a single congressional district contest.
In Nebraska's Senate race, Ricketts is seeking his first full term after being appointed to fill a vacancy. Osborn nearly defeated incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, losing by 7 points as the independent candidate drew significant crossover support.
West Virginia also holds primaries Tuesday, with polls closing at 7:30 p.m. ET. There, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito faces primary challenges including from state Sen. Tom Willis, who has argued that Capito has lost her way and does not reflect the state's conservative values. Capito has Trump's endorsement.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's results will determine whether Democrats enter November with a unified nominee in a competitive district or one carrying the baggage of a contentious primary fight. Both Cavanaugh and Powell have insisted they can unite the party after weeks of attacks, but Republican strategists see an opportunity to exploit any lingering divisions.
The Senate race outcome could affect Ricketts' electoral strategy. If Burbank wins the Democratic nomination, Ricketts would face a traditional two-party challenger. If Forbes prevails amid accusations he is a Republican plant designed to split Osborn's support, Ricketts could face a three-way race similar to what helped Osborn nearly win in 2024.
Voters will also decide general election matchups in West Virginia Senate and House races. The next set of primaries across both states is scheduled for later this spring.