Cindy Burbank won the Democratic Senate primary in Nebraska, NBC News projects, potentially clearing the way for independent Dan Osborn to take on GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts head-to-head in the fall election.
Burbank defeated pastor William Forbes for the Democratic nomination, while Ricketts easily won his Republican primary. The outcome leaves open questions about whether Burbank will remain in the race or step aside to boost Osborn's general election chances against the incumbent.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans have already begun targeting Osborn as aligned with Democrats despite his independent status. In 2024 campaign ads, Republicans noted that Osborn had privately praised Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and they are expected to renew those attacks in the fall race.
Forbes denied allegations that he was a Republican plant to syphon votes from Osborn. He told CNN he supported Trump in recent elections but entered the Democratic primary as a genuine candidate. Ricketts has launched multiple ads touting tax cuts and is running for his first full term after winning a 2024 special election to replace GOP Sen. Ben Sasse.
Trump has endorsed Ricketts, who served as Nebraska governor before being appointed to the seat. Republicans argue that splitting the Democratic ticket between two candidates would benefit their nominee in a state Trump carried by 20 points in 2024.
What the Left Is Saying
Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb had encouraged voters to support Burbank in the primary, arguing she was needed on the ballot after Forbes entered the race at the last minute. The party accused Forbes of being a Ricketts plant designed to pull votes from Osborn in November.
Burbank herself acknowledged that she would evaluate her prospects based on polling and could drop out if she lacks a clear path to victory. She told NBC News that if staying on the ballot takes votes away from Osborn, "it's not fair." Her campaign website mentions Osborn multiple times, including writing that "he deserves a fair shot against Ricketts."
Democrats have not won a Senate race in Nebraska since 2006, and party strategists had hoped to avoid splitting the anti-Ricketts vote between Burbank and Osborn. The state party declined initially to field a candidate, preferring a two-way general election contest.
What the Numbers Show
Osborn lost to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 percentage points in 2024, running significantly ahead of most Democratic candidates in a year when Trump won Nebraska by 20 points. That performance made him the strongest potential challenger to Ricketts in November.
Ricketts easily won his Republican primary and has significant name recognition from his years as governor. Democrats have not carried a Senate race in Nebraska in nearly two decades, since 2006.
Burbank is a pharmacy technician with no prior electoral experience, while Osborn is a steamfitter and former union organizer who built a competitive campaign operation in 2024. If Burbank drops out before the November ballot is finalized, it would create a clearer two-candidate race.
The Bottom Line
The outcome of this race depends on whether Burbank follows through on her stated willingness to step aside. She said she aims to decide in time to remove her name from the November ballot if polling suggests she cannot win.
If Burbank drops out, Osborn would face Ricketts without a Democratic spoiler, potentially replicating his surprisingly competitive 2024 performance against Fischer. If she remains in the race, Republicans could benefit from vote-splitting among those who might otherwise choose Osborn but decide to support the Democratic nominee as an alternative to Ricketts.
Ricketts begins the general election with structural advantages: incumbency, Trump endorsement, and a decades-long drought for Nebraska Democrats in Senate contests. What remains uncertain is whether this fall's race will feature two candidates or three.