Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana is running for a third term Saturday, attempting to survive a primary that will test whether a Republican who voted to convict President Trump can win in today's GOP. Cassidy faces two challengers: Congresswoman Julia Letlow, who has Trump's endorsement, and state treasurer John Fleming, a former member of Congress who served in the Trump administration.
Cassidy is one of only three remaining Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump after the January 6th insurrection. Of the seven Republican senators who made that vote in 2021, four did not seek reelection. The other two are Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. If Cassidy loses, it would leave just two.
What the Right Is Saying
For many conservative voters, Cassidy's vote to convict Trump remains unforgivable. At the Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival, retired deputy sheriff Kevin Dupree said he would support any Republican nominee except Cassidy.
"I'm the type of person, if you cross me, I probably won't trust you anymore," Dupree said. "I think his political career in Louisiana is finished."
Republican Gov. Jeff Landry pushed to close what was historically an open primary, preventing registered Democrats from voting in the GOP contest. St. Martin Parish GOP Chairman Kelby Daigle acknowledged Cassidy made the right call on the conviction vote but worries about Trump's influence on the party.
"Conservatism is about ideas and principles, and they always make it about Trump," Daigle said. "What are you going to do when he's no longer in the picture?"
Letlow has largely avoided attacking Cassidy by name in her stump speech, instead arguing Louisiana needs a senator who will not undermine the state's voters who overwhelmingly supported Trump.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressives and some Democrats have watched Cassidy's survival attempt with interest, though many remain skeptical of his record. New Orleans voter Eli Feinstein, who changed his party registration from Democrat to no party specifically to vote for Cassidy in the GOP primary, says he sees the senator as someone willing to occasionally break with Trump.
"He's someone who does not share my politics," Feinstein said. "And I wish that America had more people like him."
However, many Democrats do not view Cassidy favorably. Cassidy provided the critical vote to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination to lead Health and Human Services despite deep reservations about Kennedy's vaccine skepticism. In November, Feinstein says he will vote for the Democratic nominee, but in a state as heavily Republican as Louisiana, he views Cassidy as the best option among Republicans.
What the Numbers Show
If no candidate receives more than 50% of Saturday's vote, the top two finishers advance to a runoff next month. Polls have shown Letlow and Cassidy competitive with Fleming, making a runoff likely. The race is complicated by Louisiana's unique demographics: approximately 40% white Protestant, 32% Black, and 28% other populations including French, Spanish, and Creole communities.
Four of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in 2021 did not seek reelection. Lisa Murkowski won her 2022 race in Alaska using that state's nonpartisan primary system, where the top four vote-getters advance regardless of party. Collins faces no primary challenge in Maine, a state Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
Cassidy has highlighted his work steering federal flood recovery money to Louisiana after disasters and negotiating the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. He notes Trump has signed several bills he wrote or negotiated recently, including measures to lower prescription drug costs and crack down on fentanyl.
The Bottom Line
Saturday's primary will reveal whether Trump's endorsement carries enough weight to defeat an incumbent senator with significant legislative accomplishments. If Cassidy loses, it would reduce the already small group of Senate Republicans willing to occasionally break with the president, and could discourage future. If he survives, it may suggest limits to Trump's influence over Republican primary voters, though Louisiana's unique political culture makes broad generalizations difficult.