President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot this year, but with roughly six months before Election Day, Republicans across the country say they see both reason for optimism and significant challenges heading into the November midterms. NBC News spoke with more than 120 members of the Republican National Committee and GOP activists, conducting approximately 30 interviews to gauge party sentiment.

Republicans have lost a number of elections in recent months, sometimes by overwhelming margins, giving Democrats a sense of momentum. The party faces historical headwinds—the party controlling the White House generally loses congressional seats during midterms—along with Trump's low approval ratings, persistently high costs for everyday goods, and an ongoing conflict with Iran now in its third month.

What the Left Is Saying

Senate Democratic strategists have pointed to recent electoral victories as evidence of a shift in voter sentiment. In a PBS/Marist poll released late last month, just 33% said they approved of Trump's handling of the Iran war, while only 35% approved of his handling of the economy—the lowest figure for either of Trump's two terms on those specific issues.

Progressive groups argue that the "big, beautiful bill"—the sweeping tax cut package rebranded by many Republicans as the "Working Families Tax Cut"—has not delivered the relief middle-income families expected. According to the Tax Policy Center, 60% of savings from the tax overhaul are projected to go to the top fifth of households. The law included provisions fulfilling Trump's campaign pledges of no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security, but many workers say they have not seen benefits as large as advertised.

"The economy is always a top issue," Jason Simmons, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, said in response to such critiques. "We stopped the largest tax increase in American history and passed the Working Families Tax Cut, putting more money in the pockets of those who deserve it."

What the Right Is Saying

Republicans say they believe they can hold on to their congressional majority, pointing to recent court decisions that gave them an upper hand in redistricting—likely reducing the number of seats Democrats can pick up in November. The party has also raised significantly more money than major Democratic groups.

"The 2026 midterms will come down to one simple question: Who is delivering real results for the American people?" said Joseph Wood, chair of the Arkansas Republican Party. "President Trump's administration has already run circles around the failed President Biden years, securing the border, slashing taxes, cutting government waste and restoring law and order."

Republican officials cited the constellation of national GOP organizations—including the RNC, Trump-aligned MAGA Inc., and groups supporting House and Senate candidates—collectively holding $843 million in cash on hand, compared to $304 million for similar Democratic groups. "Rarely do we see the Republicans have a money advantage over Democrats," said Evan Power, chairman of the Florida Republican Party. "This cycle we have that."

A top concern among Republicans is turning out their base when Trump won't be on the ballot. Trump's political strength has been engaging low-propensity voters who may not participate in midterm elections without him at the top of the ticket.

"We have not cracked that code," said one anonymous Southern state Republican Party chair. "If we don't figure out a way to energize MAGA voters, it's going to be a real problem—especially considering some of the things already working against Republicans."

What the Numbers Show

According to NBC News' interviews with approximately 30 Republican officials and activists across the country:

The PBS/Marist poll released late last month showed Trump's approval on the economy at 35%—the lowest figure for either of his terms. His approval on handling the Iran war stood at 33%. The conflict has driven gas prices higher, a concern for Republicans in states like Iowa.

"I think our party will show patience," said Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, regarding voters dealing with high gas prices. "It just needs to be explained to our voters under 55 or 50. When explained that it's temporary, Iowans have patience."

The Tax Policy Center projects 60% of savings from the GOP tax overhaul go to the top fifth of households.

National GOP organizations: $843 million cash on hand. Similar Democratic groups: $304 million.

Trump has repeatedly emphasized the SAVE America Act—a sweeping elections bill requiring proof of citizenship such as a passport or birth certificate to register for federal elections—as critical to Republican chances. The bill is bogged down in the Senate and does not appear to have the votes to pass.

The Bottom Line

Republicans enter the midterm season with several structural advantages: more money, favorable redistricting decisions, and a party apparatus aligned behind Trump. But they face an electorate frustrated by high costs and a conflict in the Middle East that has divided their "America First" base between those wanting domestic focus and those supporting aggressive foreign policy.

The party's cash advantage is significant but not guaranteed to translate into victories—in 2024, Democrats held a major money lead yet Republicans won the White House and Congress. What may matter more is whether Trump-centric voters who turned out in presidential election years will participate without him on the ballot—and whether the president himself will shift his focus from projects like a White House ballroom renovation and a gold statue unveiled at his Florida golf club to economic messaging.

Trump told NBC News that Republicans' midterm chances depend heavily on congressional action. "Passing the SAVE America Act is very important," he said. "If we don't pass the SAVE America Act, I feel less good." He added: "I am on the ballot. And my voters love me."

What happens in the coming months—particularly whether gas prices decline as the Iran conflict potentially winds down and whether middle-income families see more tangible benefits from tax changes—will likely determine whether Republicans maintain their congressional majorities or face significant losses.