A group that says its mission is to serve as a prediction market "watchdog" launched a six-figure advertising campaign this week in the Washington, D.C., media market, timed to coincide with a Senate Commerce Committee hearing examining the expansion of gambling and prediction markets. The group, called FairPredicts, touts itself as a non-partisan organization that holds "the prediction market industry accountable."
FairPredicts has specifically been critical of Kalshi, one of the largest prediction markets that spent nearly $500,000 in 2026 alone lobbying Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates the industry. The group's concerns focus on sports wagering and the ability of people to influence markets with insider government or political information not available to the public.
"FairPredicts is launching today as a nonpartisan market integrity watchdog with one clear mission: holding Kalshi and other prediction market operators accountable for the growing gap between what they tell the public and what they actually do," the group said in a statement to NBC News. FairPredicts would not comment on its funding sources; it is a political nonprofit that does not need to publicly disclose its donors.
What the Right Is Saying
Senate Republicans have generally been more cautious about heavy-handed regulation while acknowledging the need for oversight. Industry groups argue that prediction markets provide valuable forecasting tools and that any market can attract bad actors without proper regulatory frameworks.
Under increasing pressure, Kalshi said in February it had opened 200 investigations into insider trading, including two cases the company turned over to the CFTC as required by law. "No system is perfect. No financial exchange is immune from bad actors," the company said. "Not stock exchanges, not banks, not prediction markets. We're committed to deterring and finding the bad actors, manipulators, and those who willingly cheat."
The Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that will testify at Wednesday's hearing, has defended the industry's self-regulatory efforts. Patrick McHenry, a senior adviser for the coalition, is among four witnesses scheduled to appear alongside representatives from the American Gaming Association and the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council.
What the Left Is Saying
Senate Democrats have raised concerns about prediction markets' potential to be manipulated by those with access to classified or nonpublic information. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., championed a bipartisan resolution in February that bans senators from using prediction markets.
"We must never allow Congress to turn into a casino where members representing the public can gamble on wars and economic crises or elections," Schumer said on the Senate floor when introducing the resolution. The measure passed the Senate unanimously.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee holding Wednesday's hearing, said the session would examine how to strengthen oversight, protect market credibility, and address concerns about young people and children being exposed to betting platforms. While Blackburn is a Republican, Democrats have joined her in calling for enhanced regulation of prediction markets amid reports of insider trading.
What the Numbers Show
Kalshi spent nearly $500,000 lobbying Congress and the CFTC in 2026 alone, according to disclosure records. The company opened 200 investigations into alleged insider trading, turning over two cases to regulators as required by federal law. One political candidate, Mark Moran, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Virginia, acknowledged making a $100 bet on his own campaign through Kalshi to highlight what he called vulnerabilities in the system.
Federal authorities arrested U.S. special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke over allegations he used classified information about an operation involving Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro to make approximately $409,000 on Polymarket. Some of the largest sports betting platforms have invested more than $40 million into a super PAC primarily focused on influencing state legislative races.
President Donald Trump, while downplaying the soldier's arrest, said he has concerns about prediction market expansion broadly. "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump said last month. "I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually, but it is what it is now."
The Bottom Line
Wednesday's Senate Commerce Committee hearing represents the latest congressional examination of prediction markets that have grown rapidly following regulatory approvals. FairPredicts' ad campaign aims to shape the debate by amplifying concerns about insider trading and market manipulation ahead of potential legislative action.
The CFTC, which regulates Kalshi as a designated contract market, could face renewed pressure from Congress to tighten rules around political and event-based contracts. Industry groups are expected to argue for continued self-regulation while pointing to their existing compliance efforts. NBC News reached out to both Kalshi and the Coalition for Prediction Markets for additional comment on FairPredicts' campaign but had not received responses as of publication.