Pennsylvania Democrats will settle primary fights on Tuesday to shape their congressional slate for the fall election when they hope to capture four swing districts and ultimately a U.S. House majority. Gov. Josh Shapiro and national Democrats are promoting their chosen candidates over progressive rivals, the latest example of a fissure that has divided the party as it grasps for a path back to power in Washington.
Three of the four swing districts have contested Democratic primaries, in addition to a wide-open primary contest in Philadelphia that will almost surely anoint the next seat holder. The campaigns will put Pennsylvania on the front lines of Democratic efforts to retake control of Congress and block the last two years of President Donald Trump's agenda. They will also test Shapiro's influence ahead of a possible White House campaign.
Shapiro is heavily favored to win reelection over Republican candidate Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, so he is putting his clout on the line in primaries that will determine his party's chances in November. Three of Democrats' primary fights are in swing districts held by Republican U.S. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans acknowledge Shapiro's electoral strength but argue his involvement in Democratic primaries reveals anxiety about maintaining party cohesion. Many hope that Garrity can make her race against Shapiro competitive enough to help protect other Republicans on the ballot down-ticket.
National Republican groups are watching the Pennsylvania primaries closely, arguing that internal Democratic divisions over Shapiro's picks signal weakness heading into November. The GOP points out that Fitzpatrick, Perry and Mackenzie have survived previous Democratic challenges despite being perennial targets.
What the Left Is Saying
Washington U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the DCCC, said the party wanted "top tier" candidates who were the strongest to take on Republican incumbents. She argued that Shapiro's picks represent the most electable path in November.
Progressive groups are backing different candidates in several races. In Scott Perry's south central Pennsylvania district, progressive challenger Justin Douglas, a minister and Dauphin County commissioner, is running against Janelle Stelson, a former local television anchor backed by Shapiro and the DCCC. U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York endorsed state Rep. Chris Rabb in the Philadelphia primary, calling him a champion for working families.
In the Bucks County race to challenge Fitzpatrick, Lucia Simonelli, a first-time candidate and climate activist, is running against Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner supported by party establishment. Dr. Ala Stanford, a pediatric surgeon who started a Black doctors' consortium during COVID-19, received millions of dollars from 314 Action, a left-leaning political action committee aimed at electing scientists to Congress.
What the Numbers Show
In 2018, the last midterm election cycle under Trump, Pennsylvania Democrats flipped four Republican-held congressional seats. In 2024, Perry and Mackenzie's margins of victory were among the slimmest in that year's House races — smaller than the margin by which Trump won those districts in the presidential election.
Fitzpatrick won more comfortably but is one of three House Republicans elected in districts that also backed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Shapiro won the same four districts in 2022, and he tops the party's ticket this year. Shapiro has plunged more than $900,000 so far this election cycle into the state Democratic Party's accounts.
Mackenzie faces his first reelection test as a freshman incumbent. The Philadelphia seat is open after retiring Rep. Dwight Evans announced he would not seek another term.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's primaries will determine whether Shapiro and national Democrats or progressive challengers have more influence over Pennsylvania's general election lineup in these competitive districts. Without Trump on the ballot this year, Democrats hope for weaker Republican turnout. How these primary battles resolve could shape whether the party has the unity needed to flip three Republican-held seats and potentially reclaim the House majority.