Democrat Roy Cooper holds an 11-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, according to two new polls released this week.
The first survey, from The Carolina Journal/Harper Polling, found that nearly half of 600 likely voters said they would either definitely or probably back Cooper, the former two-term governor. Less than 39 percent said they would support Whatley, who spent nearly a year and a half as chair of the Republican National Committee before leaving last August to launch his Senate bid. The poll was conducted May 10-11 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
A second survey from Carolina Forward, conducted May 4-8 among 957 likely voters, showed Cooper leading Whatley 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided and a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. The winner will succeed Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is departing after two terms.
What the Right Is Saying
Whatley and his allies are quick to note that the race is far from decided. The Republican has focused on public safety and kitchen-table issues like agriculture and manufacturing. His campaign argues that Cooper's record as governor contains vulnerabilities, particularly on crime and economic management.
The Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), announced last month it is investing $71 million to assist Whatley, a signal of national Republicans' commitment to holding the seat. The substantial outside spending reflects an expectation that the race remains competitive despite Cooper's polling lead.
Conservative commentators argue that double-digit leads in internal polls often narrow as Election Day approaches and that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and allied groups will spend heavily in North Carolina. They note that Tillis won both of his Senate races by less than 2 percentage points, suggesting North Carolina voters trend Republican at the federal level even when they support Democrats statewide.
What the Left Is Saying
Cooper's supporters point to his track record as evidence of broad appeal across North Carolina. He won each of his six statewide races dating back to 2000, including two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025. A Democrat has not represented North Carolina in the Senate since former Sen. Kay Hagan left Congress in 2015 after losing to Tillis.
The Cooper campaign has emphasized themes of putting people first. We need somebody who will go to the United States Senate who will put the people first, and that is what I will do, Cooper told a crowd last week in Johnston County. Im going to put the people before power. Im going to put the people before party. Im going to put the people before politics.
Progressive groups argue that Whatley's tenure as RNC chair, a position he held during the 2024 election cycle, may not translate to success in a purple state where voters have supported Cooper repeatedly.
What the Numbers Show
The polling gap between Cooper and Whatley ranges from 7 to 11 points depending on the survey. In The Carolina Journal/Harper Polling, 49 percent of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote for Cooper while fewer than 39 percent said the same for Whatley. About 4 percent planned to back another candidate and 7.8 percent were undecided.
On fundraising, Cooper holds a significant financial edge. As of the end of March, his campaign reported more than $18.4 million on hand compared to more than $2.5 million for Whatley, according to Federal Election Commission records. However, the Senate Leadership Fund's $71 million commitment represents an attempt to offset that disparity with outside spending.
North Carolina last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2014, when Hagan won her second term before losing to Tillis two years later by less than 2 points. The state has not had two Democratic senators since 2015.
The Bottom Line
This race is among the most competitive Senate contests of the cycle, with national Republicans determined to hold a seat in a state that has shifted toward their party in federal elections even as it continues electing Democrats statewide. Cooper enters the race with structural advantages: a longer electoral record, a commanding fundraising lead, and consistent polling leads across two independent surveys.
Whatley counters with significant outside support from Senate Republican leadership and the argument that federal ballot questions favor Republicans even when statewide races go Democratic. The next several months will test whether Whatley's messaging on public safety and the economy can close a gap that spans 7 to 11 points depending on the poll, or whether Cooper's record and resources prove decisive in November.