Gov. Brad Little, R-Idaho, will face Democratic candidate Terri Pickens in November as he seeks a third term in office. Pickens, a private practice attorney and small business owner, won the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, edging out several challengers.
Pickens faces an uphill battle in deeply Republican Idaho. The state has not elected a Democratic governor in 36 years, making it one of the most challenging territories for the party to compete in at the statewide level.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans point to Little's conservative record as why he has consistently won statewide office. The governor has championed deregulation, increased public education funding, and tax relief during his tenure. He defeated a crowded GOP primary field including former police officer Mark Fitzpatrick, who challenged him from the right on issues including immigration.
Little is endorsed by President Donald Trump and is expected to cruise to the general election in November. State Republican Party officials argue that Little's focus on kitchen-table issues resonates with Idaho voters regardless of party affiliation.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats point to Pickens' background as a small business owner and attorney as assets in connecting with voters beyond traditional partisan lines. Her campaign has emphasized kitchen-table issues including healthcare access and economic opportunity in rural communities.
Pickens previously ran for lieutenant governor in 2022, losing to Republican Scott Bedke by 34 percentage points. That experience, supporters argue, gives her name recognition and a foundation to build upon. Democratic activists note that voter energy around abortion rights and education funding could drive higher turnout in November than in previous cycles.
What the Numbers Show
Idaho has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990, a span of 36 years. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Little's re-election as "Solid Republican," its most secure category for minority-party chances. In her 2022 lieutenant governor bid, Pickens lost by 34 points to Bedke, who is now the state's lieutenant governor seeking another term. Former Idaho Supreme Court Justice John Stegner has also launched an independent candidacy, which could affect both candidates' vote totals.
The Bottom Line
Little enters the general election as a heavy favorite in a state that has voted Republican in every gubernatorial race for more than three decades. Pickens will need to motivate Democratic base voters while making inroads with independents and moderate Republicans to be competitive. Stegner's independent candidacy adds an unknown variable to the race. The outcome is not expected to alter Idaho's status as one of the most reliably Republican states in the country.