Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley will compete in Georgia's Republican Senate runoff on June 16, NBC News projects, after neither secured a majority of Tuesday's primary vote. The two Republicans will face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November in one of the most competitive Senate races of the midterm cycle.
Collins, a three-term congressman and trucking company owner who first won his House seat in 2022, led the field in most public polling throughout the primary campaign. He centered his candidacy on his MAGA credentials and highlighted his role authoring the Laken Riley Act, the first bill President Donald Trump signed into law during his second term. The legislation addressed immigrant detention and was named after a Georgia nursing student killed by a Venezuelan man who entered the country illegally.
Rep. Buddy Carter, the other top contender in the race, finished in third place and will not advance to the runoff. President Trump did not endorse any candidate during the primary, despite all three leading Republicans publicly seeking his support. It remains unclear whether Trump will make an endorsement before the June 16 runoff.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans view Georgia as one of their top pickup opportunities in 2026, noting that Trump won the state in November and arguing that midterm elections historically favor the party out of power in the White House. The seat is one of only two Senate seats Democrats are defending in states Trump carried in 2024.
Collins has declined to break with Trump on any policy position. When asked at a recent campaign event whether there were aspects of Trump's second term he disagreed with, Collins said he 'can't believe' Trump gets three hours of sleep and that he ran on 'Trump policies' and 'America First.'
Dooley benefited from an early endorsement by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who passed on running for the Senate seat himself. Kemp joined Dooley on a statewide campaign tour and recently appeared in an advertisement from his political action committee. Dooley has pitched himself as a 'political outsider' advocating for term limits and banning members of Congress from trading stocks.
Dooley acknowledged during the primary that he did not vote in the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections, saying he was consumed by his coaching career. He told NBC News he sat down with Trump in August to seek his endorsement and has featured the president in television advertisements stating he will 'work with President Trump but for you.'
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats are pointing to Georgia's recent Senate electoral history as evidence that Ossoff remains well-positioned for re-election. Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock first won their seats in January 2021 runoffs, and Warnock successfully defended his seat in 2022 by defeating Trump-backed Herschel Walker.
Ossoff's campaign reported more than $32 million in its account as of April 29, giving him a significant financial advantage heading into the general election. On the campaign trail, Ossoff has focused on what his campaign describes as a broader culture of corruption in Washington, while also taking direct aim at Trump despite the president having carried Georgia by 2 points in November.
Collins' opponents during the primary argued he would be particularly vulnerable against Ossoff due to a House Ethics Committee inquiry into allegations that Collins misused congressional funds. The investigation centers on accusations that Collins paid his former chief of staff for campaign work and employed the aide's girlfriend, who allegedly did not perform work for the congressional office. Carter repeatedly raised the ethics inquiry in campaign ads as evidence that Collins would be a weak general election candidate.
What the Numbers Show
No candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to win Tuesday's Republican primary outright, triggering the mandatory June 16 runoff between Collins and Dooley. Carter's third-place finish eliminates him from the race.
Georgia has been one of the nation's most closely divided states in recent elections. Trump won the state by approximately 2 percentage points in November after losing it by less than half a point to Joe Biden in 2020. Republicans have lost three consecutive statewide Senate races: Ossoff's 2021 victory, Warnock's 2021 runoff win, and Warnock's 2022 general election defeat of Walker.
Collins' campaign pointed to his 2022 congressional race as evidence of crossover appeal, noting that he won a competitive House district. The Laken Riley Act marked the first piece of legislation Trump signed in his second term, giving Collins a legislative achievement to highlight beyond his MAGA framing.
Dooley's family name carries significant recognition in Georgia sports circles. His father, Vince Dooley, was a legendary football coach at the University of Georgia, while Derek himself served as head coach at the University of Tennessee before entering politics.
The Bottom Line
The June 16 runoff will determine which Republican faces Ossoff in November. Collins enters the contest with primary polling leads and high name recognition from his congressional service and Trump-aligned brand, but carries the burden of an ongoing ethics investigation that Democrats are expected to feature prominently in a general election. Dooley brings establishment backing from Kemp and a political outsider message aimed at reform-minded voters.
Trump's eventual endorsement could prove decisive given his continued popularity with Georgia Republican primary voters. Neither Collins nor Dooley has publicly broken with the president on policy, making ideological distinctions between them difficult for GOP voters to assess.
For Republicans, flipping Ossoff's seat would be a significant step toward building their Senate majority ahead of the 2026 midterms. For Democrats, holding the seat would demonstrate continued competitiveness in a state that Trump won just two years after Biden carried it. The race is expected to attract substantial national campaign spending on both sides.