Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) is projected to face former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) in the November race for governor of Alabama, according to Decision Desk HQ projections released Wednesday.
The matchup sets up a high-profile rematch between two senators who previously faced off in 2020, when Tuberville defeated Jones by roughly 20 percentage points. Jones first won his Senate seat in 2017 after defeating Roy Moore (R) in a special election that drew national attention and significant campaign funding from outside groups.
The race will determine who succeeds Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who is term-limited and cannot seek re-election. The new governor will take office in January 2027.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats are positioning Jones as their best chance to compete in a state where the party has struggled for years. Cook Political Report called Jones "quite possibly the only Alabama Democrat with a prayer of competing statewide."
National Democratic groups have taken notice, with party strategists pointing to Jones's name recognition and his proven ability to run competitive campaigns in conservative territory. Supporters argue that his 2017 victory demonstrated he can appeal to enough moderate and independent voters to make the race competitive, even in deep red Alabama.
The Democratic Governors Association has not yet announced whether it will invest resources in the race, but party officials say they are monitoring developments closely as the cycle progresses.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans point to Tuberville's 2020 victory as evidence of his strength with Alabama voters. The incumbent senator won by a comfortable margin despite being a first-time candidate at the time, and party leaders expect that incumbency advantage to carry into the gubernatorial race.
The GOP has held the governor's office for more than two decades, and state Republican Party officials say they are confident in Tuberville's ability to maintain that streak. National Republican groups have already begun coordinating with the Tuberville campaign on messaging strategy.
Conservative commentators note that Alabama's partisan lean makes the governor's race a difficult climb for any Democrat, regardless of their statewide name recognition or previous electoral success.
What the Numbers Show
Alabama has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, when Gov. Bob Riley won his second term. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1988, and Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Cook Political Report rates the gubernatorial race as "solidly Republican," assigning it an R+25 partisan lean. In comparison, Tuberville's 2020 Senate victory came with a margin of approximately 20 percentage points over Jones.
Jones received 39.6% of the vote in his 2020 Senate loss to Tuberville, compared to Tuberville's 59.7%. Third-party candidates split roughly 0.7% of the electorate.
The Bottom Line
The race will test whether any Democrat can compete statewide in Alabama and what effect name recognition and prior electoral success might have on voter behavior. Tuberville's entry into the gubernatorial contest also opens his Senate seat, triggering a separate competition for that position.
Republicans are expected to maintain their hold on the governor's mansion given the state's overwhelming partisan lean, but Democrats argue Jones offers their best opportunity in years to make the race competitive. Whether national party organizations invest significant resources will be a key factor to watch as Election Day approaches.