Tuesday's primary runoffs in Texas will test President Donald Trump's endorsement power once again, as voters decide a series of high-profile races including a consequential Senate Republican contest that could determine which party controls the upper chamber next year.
The most closely watched race pits state Attorney General Ken Paxton against longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. Trump endorsed Paxton just one week before the election, dealing a significant blow to Cornyn, who had been seeking the president's backing as well. The winner will face Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative who won the party's nomination in March.
What the Right Is Saying
Trump described Paxton as a 'True MAGA warrior' and noted his support for eliminating the Senate filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, Trump's proposal requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and photo ID to cast a ballot. The president criticized Cornyn for not supporting him during difficult moments, pointing to Cornyn's neutrality in the 2016 GOP primary.
Cornyn has pushed back by noting he supports Trump's agenda and that Trump 'has consistently called me a friend.' He has also warned that nominating Paxton risks losing winnable down-ballot races. 'It is now time for Texas Republican voters to decide if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about,' Cornyn said.
Conservative groups aligned with the House Freedom Caucus have largely backed Paxton, arguing that Cornyn represents the establishment wing of the party that has sometimes frustrated Trump's priorities. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has not publicly taken sides in the Senate race.
What the Left Is Saying
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Republican leaders had urged Trump to back Cornyn, warning that Paxton's legal troubles could endanger the seat. That concern has animated Democratic strategists watching the race closely.
Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has argued that Paxton represents chaos while Cornyn at least offers stability. 'Texas deserves a senator who will actually fight for working families, not someone who spent years under investigation,' Talarico said in a recent statement. His campaign has sought to frame both Republicans as problematic while emphasizing his own background as a public school teacher and education advocate.
National Democratic groups have signaled interest in making this race competitive if Cornyn wins the GOP nomination. The party views Texas as part of its long-term expansion strategy, though the state hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
What the Numbers Show
In the March primary, Cornyn finished narrowly ahead at 42% while Paxton received 41%, with neither reaching the majority needed to avoid a runoff. According to AdImpact data, Cornyn's campaign and an allied super PAC called Texans for a Conservative Majority have spent nearly $20 million on advertising since March. Paxton and Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports him, have spent approximately $5 million.
In Texas' 35th Congressional District, a secretive outside group called Lead Left PAC has spent roughly $1 million boosting Maureen Galindo in the Democratic runoff, despite her having raised virtually no money. The district was carried by Trump by 10.5 percentage points in 2024, making it challenging terrain for Democrats even with a nominee who survives the primary.
In another contested redistricted seat in Houston where two Democrats must face each other due to GOP-drawn maps, Rep. Christian Menefee has benefited from more than $2 million in outside spending by a crypto-industry-aligned super PAC. His opponent, Rep. Al Green, is 78 years old while Menefee is 37.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's elections will reveal whether Trump's endorsement can overcome Cornyn's financial advantage and institutional support within the party. If Paxton wins, it would mark one of the most significant primary defeats of an incumbent senator backed by his own party's leadership in recent memory.
Beyond the Senate race, Democrats face internal divisions on display in at least two House districts where incumbents must compete against each other due to redistricting. The fate of those nominees could affect whether Texas Democrats have any realistic pickup opportunities this fall. Results from most polls close at 8 p.m. ET, with the full state closing at 9 p.m. ET.