Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff Tuesday, defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by nearly 30 percentage points in a landslide victory that demonstrated President Trump's continued grip on GOP politics in the state.
Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate for more than two decades, conceded the race and said he would support Paxton in the general election. The president endorsed Paxton ahead of Tuesday's vote, a boost that proved decisive in the final days of the campaign.
Paxton will face Democratic nominee James Talarico this November in what political observers are calling one of the nation's most competitive Senate races. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists see Paxton's nomination as an opportunity they did not have with Cornyn, arguing that his legal and ethical troubles make him vulnerable in a general election. Rottinghaus noted that national Republicans are already concerned about having to divert resources to defend Texas.
"For a lot of voters, the first thing they will know about Ken Paxton will be something negative," Rottinghaus said during PBS NewsHour analysis. "That's not a great stepping-off point."
Talarico, a former middle school teacher and current state legislator, has centered his campaign on kitchen-table issues including healthcare costs, public education funding, and economic opportunity. Supporters argue that despite Texas's Republican leanings, Paxton's baggage creates an opening for Democrats to make inroads with suburban voters and infrequent voters who could be mobilized by the right candidate and message.
The Talarico campaign has signaled it will focus on drawing contrast between its nominee's clean record and Paxton's history of legal troubles. However, Rottinghaus cautioned that Texas's structural advantages for Republicans remain significant, noting that even if Talarico finds effective messaging, "if it's a straight-up fight between Republicans and Democrats, Republicans have the edge."
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans celebrated Paxton's victory as validation of Trump's continued influence over the party base. Cornyn himself acknowledged the outcome with characteristic party loyalty.
"There's a simple rule in elections," Cornyn said in his concession remarks. "The candidate who gets the most votes wins. The party in the majority gets to govern. And my hope is to keep my party in power for generations."
Trump appeared via video at a Paxton campaign event, reinforcing the alliance between the two political survivors. Paxton called Trump's endorsement "the most powerful force in politics" and pledged to work with the president in the Senate.
Conservative commentators have framed Paxton's survival of impeachment, indictment, and FBI scrutiny as evidence that voters prioritize policy positions over personal controversies. Supporters argue that Paxton's outsider status and willingness to fight federal government overreach resonates with the GOP base in a way that Cornyn's more institutional style did not.
"You're seeing scandals not matter as much as they used to," Rottinghaus observed, noting that Paxton turned his legal troubles into a loyalty test rather than a liability. Party strategists are confident that November's electoral map and Texas's size favor the Republican nominee regardless of his personal history.
What the Numbers Show
Paxton's margin of victory was approximately 30 percentage points over Cornyn, a significant departure from initial expectations that the race would be competitive. The result suggests Trump endorsement proved decisive in the final stretch of the runoff campaign.
Cornyn served four terms in the Senate representing Texas, first elected in 2002. He previously served as Texas attorney general and Texas Railroad Commission chairman.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, when voters chose Ann Richards for governor. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023 on charges including bribery and unfitness for office, though the Senate acquitted him following a trial. He faced securities fraud charges earlier in his career and has been subject to ongoing FBI investigation related to alleged abuse of power.
Texas is the nation's second-largest state by population with approximately 30 million residents, making statewide campaigns extraordinarily expensive. The Cook Political Report rates the race as Lean Republican.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's result marks a significant realignment in Texas Republican politics, signaling the end of the Bush-era conservative coalition that dominated state politics for decades. Paxton's victory demonstrates Trump's continued ability to reshape the GOP electorate even in a state he won comfortably.
The general election will test whether Democrats can capitalize on Paxton's vulnerabilities or whether Texas's structural advantages for Republicans remain insurmountable. National party strategists from both sides are expected to pour significant resources into the race, which could determine control of the Senate.
For now, Talarico faces the difficult task of building a coalition that has not succeeded in statewide races for three decades while contending with an opponent backed by the full weight of the Republican Party and the sitting president. The outcome will be closely watched as a barometer of whether Texas's political landscape is genuinely shifting or remains firmly in Republican hands.
Voters should expect an expensive, contentious race through November with implications extending far beyond the Lone Star State.