California's June 2 primaries present rare opportunities for progressive candidates to score major wins, but divisions within the left could undermine those efforts under the state's top-two jungle primary system, where the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party affiliation.
In Los Angeles, City Councilwoman Nithya Raman is challenging incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in a race that has drawn national attention. Bass holds endorsements from Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Meanwhile, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer is competing to become governor against establishment-backed Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Progressives argue that vote splitting poses the greatest threat to their candidates' chances. In both races, multiple left-leaning candidates are competing for the same pool of anti-establishment voters, potentially clearing a path for more moderate or Republican rivals to advance to the general election.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative commentators see division among progressives as a strategic opening. Spencer Pratt, the Republican candidate in the Los Angeles mayoral race and a former reality television figure, has publicly praised Huang's decision to stay in the contest despite her left-wing politics. "Rae Huang is a real one," Pratt wrote on social media. "I disagree with her on almost everything, but I respect that she actually walks the walk."
Republican strategist Steve Hilton has positioned himself as a change candidate backed by Trump, competing against what he characterizes as out-of-touch Democratic establishment figures in Becerra and Steyer.
Party establishment Democrats have moved quickly to consolidate support behind preferred candidates. After former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) exited the governor's race amid sexual misconduct allegations, state Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and 14 other Assembly Democrats quickly endorsed Becerra within days. Endorsements from Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association followed.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices acknowledge the frustration but defend their candidates' right to compete. Rae Huang, a Democratic socialist running against Raman in Los Angeles, has rejected suggestions she should withdraw to consolidate the left vote. "I do not believe that I am splitting the progressive vote because ultimately, at the end of the day, I would not consider Nithya [Raman] to be a progressive candidate," Huang said.
The California Democratic Socialists of America faced similar divisions, with its membership nearly evenly split between Raman and Huang. The organization was unable to issue an endorsement, reflecting deeper disagreements about which candidate best represents core progressive values.
Some progressives supporting Porter in the governor's race have expressed frustration that her campaign has not released internal polling in months. Her recent claims about being within the margin of error of Becerra and Steyer have drawn skepticism from observers who note she trails significantly in independent surveys.
What the Numbers Show
Polling data reveals tight races in both contests. A survey of the Los Angeles mayoral race found Bass at 26 percent, Raman at 25 percent, and Pratt at 22 percent. Other polls have shown Pratt ahead of Raman, highlighting her vulnerability to vote splitting from Huang's candidacy.
In the governor's race, a recent poll showed Becerra leading with approximately 30 percent support, followed by Steyer roughly tied with Hilton in the mid-20s. Porter earned 7 percent, while other candidates split the remaining votes. Becerra holds a 6-point lead over Steyer in some surveys.
Huang commands 9 percent of the vote in Los Angeles according to recent polling — enough to potentially deny Raman the top-two spot but insufficient for her own advancement. The same dynamic applies to Porter: she polls high enough to divide the progressive vote but low enough to have no plausible path to victory herself.
California's jungle primary system has historically punished fragmented voting within parties, allowing candidates with more consolidated support to advance even when they represent minority viewpoints within their party.
The Bottom Line
The June 2 primaries will test whether progressives can overcome internal divisions in California's unique electoral system. The outcome could result in Republican advancement in traditionally Democratic territory — Pratt reaching the general election in Los Angeles or Hilton advancing in the governor's race — if progressive votes remain split between multiple left-wing candidates.
What happens next will likely depend on late-decision voters and whether campaigns can convince supporters to consolidate behind their preferred candidate. Some political observers suggest that disappointing results could prompt progressive organizations to develop better coordination strategies for future elections, though others argue that ideological differences make such consolidation inherently difficult.