Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra holds a 6-point lead over his nearest competitors in California's gubernatorial race with the June 2 primary just days away, according to an Emerson College Polling survey released Saturday.

The poll shows Becerra at 28 percent support among likely voters, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 22 percent and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton at 21 percent. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trails at 12 percent, while Rep. Katie Porter has seen her support drop to just 5 percent.

California's jungle primary system means the top two vote-getters regardless of party will advance to the November general election. The Emerson survey found only 5 percent of voters remain undecided, down from a high of 39 percent in October 2025.

What the Left Is Saying

Democratic strategists have pointed to Becerra's coalition-building as key to his rise. He had just 5 percent support in September 2025 and dropped to 3 percent in March before jumping 7 points in April following Rep. Eric Swalwell's withdrawal from the race after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct surfaced.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final survey ahead of Tuesday's primary. "Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday's primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election," Kimball said.

Should Becerra win, he would become California's first Latino governor since José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco, who served from February to December 1875. Democratic supporters argue his experience as former HHS secretary under President Biden gives him credibility on healthcare and infrastructure issues that resonate with California voters.

Steyer's path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, according to Kimball's analysis.

What the Right Is Saying

Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are competing for the GOP spot in the November general election. The poll shows 88 percent of Hilton and Bianco supporters say they will definitely back their preferred candidate, compared to 76 percent who said they will definitely support Becerra.

"If Chad Bianco's support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit," Kimball noted. Republican commentators have argued that Hilton's media background gives him name recognition advantages heading into the final stretch, while Bianco has emphasized his law enforcement credentials as a selling point for voters concerned about public safety.

Twelve percent of Hilton and Bianco supporters said they could change their minds, compared to 24 percent of Becerra supporters who indicated flexibility in their candidate choice.

What the Numbers Show

The Emerson College survey was conducted May 27-28 with 1,000 respondents. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Becerra's trajectory shows significant momentum: from 5% (September 2025) to 3% (March 2026) to 10% (April 2026) to current 28%.

Porter has seen the steepest decline in the race, dropping from 16% when she entered in September 2025 to just 5% by May 2026.

Undecided voters have fallen dramatically: from 39% in October 2025 to 5% ahead of Tuesday's vote.

Voter firmness shows 74% say they will definitely support their chosen candidate, while 26% indicate they could change their mind on Election Day.

The Bottom Line

Tuesday's primary will determine which two candidates advance to the November general election in this heavily Democratic state. Becerra holds a lead but not an insurmountable one, with Steyer and Hilton both within striking distance of second place.

If current numbers hold, Becerra would likely face either Steyer or Hilton in November. The race remains fluid for those trailing positions, particularly between Steyer and Hilton, who are separated by just 1 percentage point.

California's jungle primary system means Republicans could potentially advance two candidates to the general election if Democratic voters split their support among multiple candidates. Watch for whether Becerra can consolidate progressive voters or if Steyer's wealth advantage in advertising spending shifts the dynamics before polls close.