New Mexicans will choose Democratic and Republican nominees for governor Tuesday in a primary election that arrives as the state enjoys surging revenue from oil production. The winner of November's general election will inherit an oil windfall that has sparked competing proposals for how to use it, while also addressing persistent challenges including high violent crime rates, underperforming schools and cuts to federal safety net programs.
The state's semi-open primary system, signed into law by Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham last year, allows the roughly 23% of New Mexico voters who are not affiliated with a political party to request either a Democratic or Republican ballot for the first time. While primaries will also be held for three congressional seats, a U.S. Senate seat and statewide offices, the governor's race is the main attraction.
What the Left Is Saying
Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who also served a term in the U.S. House of Representatives, and Albuquerque-based district attorney Sam Bregman are vying for the Democratic nomination to replace Lujan Grisham, who reached her term limit. Haaland, a citizen of Laguna Pueblo, could become the first Native American woman elected governor in the United States.
Haaland's campaign has focused on reducing costs for families, emphasizing her ancestral roots and touting her experience working in Washington. She leads Bregman in fundraising by a wide margin. Her campaign has highlighted Bregman's personal wealth and cast him as out of touch with everyday New Mexicans.
Bregman, the prosecutor for Bernalillo County and father of Chicago Cubs All-Star Alex Bregman, has argued his prosecutorial experience puts him in the best position to address high crime rates that have bedeviled the state. He has promised to stand up to the Trump administration on issues such as healthcare and immigration.
Bregman's campaign also criticized Haaland after her name appeared in Jeffrey Epstein files. She flew on a private jet chartered by one of Epstein's companies during an unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor in 2014, with that flight paid for by Gary King, her running mate at the time. Haaland said she was unaware of Epstein's role and never met him.
What the Right Is Saying
Three candidates are competing in the Republican primary, though the winner faces an uphill battle in a state that has increasingly trended left. Democrats have won every statewide elected office since 2017, and no Republican presidential candidate has carried New Mexico in decades.
Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull has pointed to his leadership of the fast-growing suburb as a blueprint for how he would govern, promising to attract large employers to the state. Public relations professional Doug Turner has focused on plans to lift the state's public education system from the bottom of national rankings.
Duke Rodriguez, a former state Cabinet secretary under former Republican Gov. Gary Johnson who is now a cannabis CEO, has centered his campaign on stabilizing the state's healthcare system, which faces financial troubles and a severe shortage of physicians. A law firm representing President Donald Trump recently sent Rodriguez a cease-and-desist letter for what it called deceptive use of Trump's image in campaign materials.
What the Numbers Show
New Mexico is the nation's second largest oil-producing state behind Texas. Global oil prices have surged, translating into an influx of tax revenue to state coffers that funds progressive social programs including universal childcare. The industry provides a substantial source of funding for the next governor's priorities.
The competing visions for using the oil windfall include cutting one-time checks for taxpayers, funding tax credits that would mostly aid low-income residents and eliminating the state's income tax entirely. The state's reliance on fossil fuels to fund its programs has proved politically sensitive for Democrats heading into a general election in an energy-producing state.
The Bottom Line
Regardless of which party's nominee prevails Tuesday, the next governor will face the task of managing significant oil revenue while addressing longstanding challenges that have persisted through years of Democratic control. Crime rates, educational performance and healthcare access remain top concerns for voters. How to balance the benefits of fossil fuel extraction against longer-term energy transition considerations is likely to feature prominently in the general election campaign.