Senate Democrats and Republicans alike have high hopes for a deal to end the Iran War and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has thrown negotiations into uncertainty as lawmakers return to Washington.
Trump last week indicated a deal was close to being inked. But over the weekend, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, threw those talks into uncertain territory as Tehran raged over what they said was a breach of their broader agreement with the U.S.
The president on Monday announced on Truth Social that Israeli troops would retreat from Beirut following a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, Netanyahu in his own statement said Israel's stance remains unchanged.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be on Capitol Hill for regularly scheduled budget hearings Tuesday and Wednesday where lawmakers are expected to press him on the state of play in the Middle East.
What the Left Is Saying
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and key backer of the war powers resolution, told reporters Monday evening that the ceasefire is still curbing the all-out war between Iran's military and those of Israel and the U.S. He suggested a deal could still be in progress.
"Even though the ceasefire isn't bomb-proof, we're not in the just mass bombing that we were in, so extending the ceasefire to talk and find an off ramp to a war that never should have been started is what we need to be doing," Kaine said.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told The Hill she does not know any details yet about the potential deal. She said she hopes to get more answers at Tuesday's hearing with Rubio.
"Is the Strait going to be open? Is it going to be open without charge for commerce indefinitely, as it was before President Trump took us, started a war in Iran? What's going to happen with the enriched uranium and with the nuclear program? How is that going to be resolved? What's going to happen with the continued funding of terrorist activities like Hezbollah? We don't have any of those details," Shaheen said.
What the Right Is Saying
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told reporters Monday she is confident in Trump's handling of the negotiation but that Iran has to be brought to its knees.
"Absolutely Iran can't be funding terrorist proxies. They cannot remain with their hands on the enriched uranium, that has got to go, and we just really want to see a more stable presence in the Middle East," Ernst said.
Ernst added that opening the Strait of Hormuz would be an essential first step and that Iran should not be able to control or extort any ships going through it, as Iran has threatened to do.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a strong Trump ally, came out against earlier stages of a rumored deal that he argued was too weak on Iran. Over the weekend, he posted to X that he now supported the deal Trump was considering to open up the Strait and continue talks about Iran's nuclear program. But he drew a line at supporting any deal requiring Israel to cease hostilities against Hezbollah.
"Any ceasefire with Hezbollah would allow them to re-arm and become stronger. In my view, there must not be any linkage between an Iran deal and Israel's ability to fight back against Hezbollah's unceasing aggression in Lebanon," Graham said.
What the Numbers Show
The Senate version of the war powers resolution was discharged from a committee with a handful of Republican votes last month. A House equivalent will be up for a vote Wednesday after Republican leadership cancelled an earlier vote, fearing similar defections.
Kaine said Senate Democrats will likely determine their next steps based on how the House vote goes Wednesday.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused gas prices to spike, creating pressure on Republicans ahead of midterm elections focused heavily on affordability issues. The waterway handles roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily, making it a critical global shipping lane.
The Bottom Line
Both chambers will again consider twin resolutions intended to curb Trump's ability to continue military action in Iran without congressional approval as the administration navigates competing pressures from defense hawks skeptical of any deal and lawmakers demanding more transparency about potential terms.
Lawmakers across both parties are clamoring for specifics on what a final agreement would look like, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium stockpiles, funding of proxies like Hezbollah, and guaranteed access to the Strait of Hormuz. The coming week's hearings with Rubio and votes on war powers resolutions will test whether Congress can assert itself in the administration's Iran strategy.