Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis (D) and psychologist Pedro Casas (R) advanced to the general election Tuesday in California’s 38th Congressional District, setting up a November showdown for a House seat that election handicappers rate as comfortably favoring Democrats.
Solis led the four-candidate field with 44.4 percent of the vote, while Casas secured a second-place finish with 40.1 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ. Councilmembers Monica Sanchez (D) and Erik Lutz (D) fell behind and were eliminated from the race.
The seat became open after incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez (D) opted to run for a seat in California’s 41st Congressional District rather than seek reelection in her current district following the passage of Proposition 50, which allowed legislators facing recall or disciplinary proceedings to be recalled mid-term without requiring a special election.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders have pointed to Solis's advancement as an expected outcome for a party that enjoys strong support in the newly redrawn 38th District. The district stretches across portions of Los Angeles County following California's redistricting overhaul.
Solis entered the race as the highest-profile candidate, bringing decades of public service including her current role on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors and prior service representing California’s 31st and 32nd districts in Congress. She also served as Labor secretary under former President Barack Obama.
Democratic strategists have emphasized that Solis's name recognition and federal experience position her well for November, noting that the district's demographic composition traditionally favors Democratic candidates.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican officials have highlighted Casas's second-place finish as evidence of sustained Republican engagement in California elections despite the state's Democratic lean. The party managed to advance its sole candidate from a four-person field.
Casas, a psychologist by profession, has presented himself as an alternative to career politicians, arguing that his background in mental health provides a different perspective on congressional issues including healthcare policy and constituent services.
Republican commentators have noted that while the district is rated solidly Democratic, any competitive general election race requires resources and attention from national party committees. Some have suggested that Casas's professional background could resonate with suburban voters in the district.
What the Numbers Show
According to Decision Desk HQ results: Solis received 44.4 percent of the vote; Casas received 40.1 percent; Sanchez and Lutz, both Democrats, each received less than 10 percent combined and were eliminated from contention.
California's jungle primary system allows all candidates to compete on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November regardless of their partisan identification.
Election watchers have characterized the 38th District as solidly Democratic based on voting history and demographic composition. The district includes portions of Los Angeles County that have consistently supported Democratic candidates in federal races.
The Bottom Line
The November matchup will test whether Republicans can make a competitive race in a district that analysts consider safely Democratic, or whether Solis's name recognition and experience will carry her to victory as expected.
If elected, Solis would return to Congress after serving four years on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. Her previous congressional service included time as representative for districts that were later redrawn following the 2020 Census.
The race will be monitored for signs of Republican investment or Democratic complacency in what is expected to be a closely watched election cycle. Both parties are likely to allocate resources based on competitive assessments of individual district races.