Republican businessman Toby Doeden secured a spot in the July gubernatorial runoff Tuesday, while the race for the second finalist remained too close to call as votes continued being tallied overnight.
Doeden, who positioned himself as a political outsider and populist candidate, largely self-funded his campaign and ran on a platform of challenging the Pierre establishment. His advancement marks an early victory against the sitting governor and other established Republican figures in the race.
The second runoff position remains contested between incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., and South Dakota House Speaker Jon Hansen. All three candidates have until final vote counts are certified to learn whether they will advance.
Rhoden, a rancher who served 16 years in the state legislature before becoming lieutenant governor under former Gov. Kristi Noem, has focused his campaign on continuing her platform of making South Dakota one of the nation's most affordable and business-friendly states. He opposes abortion and supports Second Amendment rights.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican supporters of Rhoden point to his experience working alongside Noem and his legislative track record as qualifications that distinguish him from political newcomers. They argue that institutional knowledge matters when governing a state, particularly on budget and economic development issues.
Conservative commentators have highlighted Doeden's self-funded campaign as evidence of genuine grassroots support, noting that voters may be seeking change after years of the same leadership structure in Pierre. His outsider status appeals to those frustrated with traditional politics.
Johnson's backers emphasize his federal experience as South Dakota's lone congressman, arguing he brings a different perspective on issues like agriculture policy and federal funding that resonates statewide. Hansen's supporters cite his decade-plus in the State House as proof of consistent conservative credentials.
What the Left Is Saying
South Dakota Democrats have seized on the GOP primary chaos as evidence of Republican division. The party argues that a contested four-way race with an incumbent governor failing to secure outright victory signals dysfunction within Republican ranks.
Progressive groups note that the crowded field includes candidates competing for the most conservative positions, particularly on abortion and immigration enforcement. Rhoden has worked with federal authorities on ICE cooperation, while Doeden presents himself as the true outsider willing to challenge the establishment from outside Pierre's political structure.
Democratic strategists suggest that whichever Republican emerges will be weakened by a contentious primary fight, potentially creating an opening in November if the party nominates a candidate viewed as too extreme for general election voters.
What the Numbers Show
Rhoden served 16 years in the state legislature before becoming lieutenant governor for four years under Noem. He succeeded her after she left to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security.
Johnson is South Dakota's sole member of the U.S. House of Representatives, giving him a statewide profile that other candidates lack. The four-way primary drew attention for President Donald Trump's notable absence from endorsing any candidate in the race.
Doeden entered the race with significant personal resources, allowing him to compete without relying on traditional Republican Party infrastructure or donor networks that typically support establishment candidates.
The Bottom Line
The outcome of South Dakota's gubernatorial runoff will determine whether Republicans nominate an incumbent governor, a sitting congressman, a state legislative leader, or a political newcomer. Each would represent a different direction for the party in Pierre.
Vote-by-mail and early voting counts continue being processed, which could shift margins before results are certified. State election officials have until certification deadlines to finalize tallies that will determine who advances alongside Doeden.
National Republicans are watching closely to see whether Trump eventually weighs in ahead of the July runoff, and what message his endorsement might send about preferred direction for South Dakota's executive branch.