A new Fox News poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted by 8 points, 53% to 45%, in the race for Ohio's Senate seat. The survey of Ohio voters, released Wednesday, shows a significant shift in political dynamics since President Donald Trump carried the state by more than 11 percentage points in November 2024.
Trump's standing has deteriorated markedly in the Buckeye State. By a 15-point margin, Ohioans view the president negatively: 42% hold a favorable opinion and 57% an unfavorable one. That's more than a 20-point swing compared to his +6 net positive rating (52%-46%) measured in the November 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans counter that the race remains competitive and point to Husted's base strengths. The incumbent is favored by White evangelical Christians (+32 points), rural voters (+11), and White men without a college degree (+7). Among voters ages 45 and over, Brown leads by only 1 point (49%-48%).
The candidates are nearly tied among White voters overall at 49% each. Husted also holds significant advantages on key issues. Those prioritizing immigration and border security go for Husted by a 76-point margin. Immigration and border security ranks as the third-most important issue at 11%, trailing inflation (43%) and healthcare (12%).
Only 2% of Democrats pick Husted, but Republicans argue their party remains structurally advantaged in Ohio. The race is far closer than top-line numbers suggest when examining voter intensity. By a 6-point margin, more Republicans (76%) than Democrats (82%) say they are extremely or very motivated to vote this November.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists point to party unity as a key factor driving Brown's advantage. Brown garners fully 98% support among Democrats compared to Husted's 86% among Republicans, according to the poll. The Democrat also receives backing from outside his traditional base: 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of all Republicans support him.
"There's good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown."
Brown's supporters describe their vote as mainly for him rather than against Husted by a 68% to 30% margin. About one in four Ohio voters say they may change their mind before November.
The poll shows Trump fatigue may be influencing cross-party voting. In a state Trump carried with 55% of the vote, being too close to him is now more of a liability than being too liberal. Some 46% of Ohioans are worried Husted is "too close" to Trump, including 10% of his own backers.
What the Numbers Show
The poll shows significant shifts in Ohio's political landscape since November 2024: Trump's approval dropped from +6 net (52%-46%) to -15 net (42% favorable, 57% unfavorable). Husted holds a 41% favorable and 50% unfavorable rating. Brown maintains stronger numbers at 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
Brown leads overall: 53% to 45%. Issue priorities among Ohio voters are inflation (43%), healthcare (12%), immigration and border security (11%), political divisions (9%), jobs (8%), Iran (7%), abortion and crime (4% each).
Voter sentiment on family finances shows concern about economic conditions. Thirty-nine percent of Ohio voters say they are falling behind financially, up from 32% who said the same in the 2024 FNVA survey. The largest number, 49%, say their family is holding steady, down 9 points. On inflation, Brown leads by 14 points among those prioritizing it as their top issue.
The Bottom Line
Brown holds an 8-point lead that exceeds the poll's margin of sampling error, but the race remains competitive. Trump fatigue appears to be driving Republican crossovers toward Brown while Democratic unity remains near-total. Husted maintains advantages on key issues including immigration and among reliable Republican constituencies like rural voters and White evangelicals.
The candidates are competing for the Senate seat Husted currently holds after being appointed to replace JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Brown is hoping to return to the U.S. Senate after he narrowly lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024. About seven in ten of both Brown's (73%) and Husted's supporters (69%) say they are certain of their choice, with about one in four saying they may still change their mind.