Betting activity by former Rep. George Santos on the prediction market Kalshi has been flagged to federal authorities, according to two sources familiar with the investigation who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, alerted the Justice Department about bets Santos placed regarding his attendance at President Donald Trump's State of the Union address in February. The company also notified officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to one of the sources.
Santos, 37, told his millions of followers on X that he planned to attend the speech — one of many events drawing online bettors on prediction markets at the time.
"I'm gonna be in the gallery," Santos said in a video posted on X. He did not attend the event.
Kalshi also detected that Santos had been placing bets against his own attendance, according to the source familiar with the matter.
Santos acknowledged the scrutiny on Thursday in a post on X: "The DOJ might be looking into me." He wrote: "I will comment further when appropriate and clarify everything accordingly while being mindful and respectful of any process that might be underway. The bases of the accusation is preposterous and I look forward to supplying any information asked of me to any agency that inquires, till then media please do not inquire."
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic lawmakers who pushed for Santos's expulsion from Congress are likely to view this report as consistent with a pattern of deception that defined his brief tenure. Representative Ritchie Torres of New York, who was among those calling for Santos's removal, has not commented on the Kalshi reports as of publication.
Critics from the left have argued that Santos exploited prediction markets in ways that may constitute market manipulation — using insider knowledge about his own attendance plans to place strategic bets. Some progressive legal analysts contend that betting against an outcome one controls could raise questions under commodities trading regulations, though such cases are rarely prosecuted.
"This is exactly the kind of behavior that erodes public trust in both financial markets and elected officials," said one Democratic ethics advocate who requested anonymity to speak candidly about ongoing matters.
What the Right Is Saying
Santos's defenders within Republican circles argue that the Kalshi investigation represents government overreach into legal personal activity. Prediction market trading is not inherently illegal, and some conservative commentators have questioned why federal agencies would pursue a case involving relatively modest bets on a public figure's public schedule.
Trump supporters who backed the former president's decision to commute Santos's sentence last year may view the renewed DOJ attention as politically motivated. When granting clemency, Trump cited Santos's "horrible" treatment in prison and his personal circumstances rather than contesting the underlying convictions.
"Prediction markets are legal venues for expressing views on future events," wrote one conservative commentator on social media. "Going after someone for betting on their own schedule seems like stretching to find a crime."
Santos himself has not been charged with any offense related to his Kalshi activity, and it remains unclear whether the DOJ will open a formal investigation.
What the Numbers Show
Santos was expelled from Congress in December 2023 while under federal investigation — only the sixth member in U.S. history to be removed from the House. He had served just seven months representing New York's 3rd Congressional District.
In 2024, Santos pleaded guilty to federal charges including wire fraud, identity theft, and money laundering. He was sentenced to 87 months in federal prison and ordered to pay $373,994 in restitution plus $205,000 in forfeiture.
Trump commuted Santos's sentence last year. Santos has not yet served any time in prison as a result of the commutation.
Kalshi is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market — one of only two prediction markets to hold that status following a federal court ruling in 2023 that overturned an earlier CFTC ban on such platforms for political events. The company is required to report suspicious trading activity to regulators under anti-money laundering and market manipulation rules.
It is unclear how much money Santos wagered on his State of the Union attendance, as Kalshi has not disclosed transaction-level data publicly.
The Bottom Line
The DOJ has not confirmed whether it has opened a formal criminal investigation into Santos's prediction market activity. Not every tip or referral from an outside party results in prosecution; federal agencies routinely receive information they decline to pursue.
Santos remains a figure whose legal troubles span multiple jurisdictions and federal charges already resolved through his guilty plea. Whether the Kalshi matter rises to the level of prosecutorial interest will depend on evidence that he used material non-public information about his own plans — or engaged in other conduct that crosses legal lines.
Watch for any announcements from the DOJ or CFTC, as both agencies have declined to confirm or deny specifics about potential investigations. Santos's acknowledgment on social media suggests he is aware of the scrutiny and preparing a response.