Scientists around the world are warning that a strong El Niño this year, colloquially dubbed a super El Niño, could lead to extreme weather events from heavy rainfall to exacerbated droughts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted last month there is an 82% chance of El Niño emerging between May and July. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization agrees, saying there is a 90% chance El Niño will continue until at least November.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural oscillation in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, according to Robert Burgman, an atmospheric science professor at Florida International University. Trade winds that normally push warm water from South America toward Asia weaken during El Niño events, causing warm water to move instead toward the Americas. The phenomenon was named by South American fishermen in the 1600s after noticing warm waters around Christmas time and calling it "the little boy" in Spanish.
The last El Niño event occurred in 2023 and 2024 and was one of the five strongest on record, according to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. Those years were marked by record high global temperatures, severe droughts and intense cyclones. Forecasters say this year's event could be among the strongest since the 1870s.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and climate advocates are using the El Niño forecast to renew calls for federal investment in climate resilience infrastructure. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement that "the world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is" and that "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." He warned that impacts "will hit even harder, travel even further and cross borders with devastating speed."
Environmental groups argue the forecast underscores the need for expanded federal emergency management resources. Climate scientist Tom DiLiberto, media director for Climate Central, noted that El Niño is the only weather phenomenon scientists can predict months in advance, which he called a window for preparation. "The plus side here, if there's any plus side, is that with an El Niño being forecast, we can begin to prepare now for some of these impacts," DiLiberto said.
Some Democratic lawmakers have proposed increased funding for FEMA and infrastructure improvements ahead of potential severe weather events. Climate scientist Erin Coughlan de Perez at Tufts University said this year's El Niño could look different from previous ones because of the world's current "precarious state" including disruptions to energy supply chains from geopolitical conflicts that could be further exacerbated by extreme weather.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative Republicans have largely focused on preparedness and response capacity rather than climate policy implications. Some Republican members of Congress have called for ensuring existing emergency management systems are properly funded without new spending authorizations.
Meteorologist Bob Henson, who reports for Yale Climate Connections, noted that while forecasts project a strong or very strong El Niño, "that doesn't necessarily translate into when it rains it's going to pour." He said stronger events tend to produce more consistent impacts but regional outcomes remain variable. Atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy at the State University of New York at Albany emphasized that modern agriculture and food distribution systems are much better equipped than during past strong El Niños in 1877 and 1878, which caused famines killing millions.
Burgman pointed out that even within the super El Niño category, regional outcomes vary significantly. "The 1997 to '98 super El Niño brought devastating California flooding, while 2015 to '16 largely missed the state," he said. Some conservative commentators have argued against alarmism, noting that advance forecasting allows communities to prepare using existing tools and resources.
What the Numbers Show
NOAA tracks El Niño strength by monitoring Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and classifies events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The current forecast projects El Niño will be strong or very strong this year. Several forecasting models show the possibility this could be the strongest event since the 1870s.
In the United States, El Niño's effects are often geographically divided. From fall to spring, the southern U.S. can see increased rain potentially leading to flooding, while the northern regions experience warmer and drier winters. The National Hurricane Center predicted a 55% chance of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with eight to 14 named storms, reflecting El Niño's typical suppression of Atlantic tropical activity.
Internationally, droughts and fire risks are projected for Indonesia, Australia, parts of the Amazon and Southern Africa, while increased rainfall is expected in parts of South America and East Africa. The UN has reported that Southern Africa faces its worst hunger crisis in decades due to El Niño conditions. Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, killed 65 people in 1992 during a moderate to strong El Niño, demonstrating that dangerous storms can still develop despite overall quieter Atlantic seasons.
The Bottom Line
El Niño forecasts provide months of advance warning compared to other weather phenomena, allowing time for preparation. Federal, state and local emergency management agencies will likely activate preparedness protocols as the event develops between May and November.
The coming months will test whether government response systems are adequately funded and coordinated across jurisdictions. Internationally, nations in drought-prone regions face heightened food security risks. Atlantic coastal residents should maintain hurricane preparedness despite favorable seasonal forecasts, experts say, noting that it only takes one storm to cause major damage. Weather officials will continue monitoring Pacific temperatures as the forecast period approaches.